The 2020 presidential election has been going on for what feels like forever, but it’ll all come to a head on Tuesday. And, more specifically, there are nine states that could flip the election results.
Reports over the last few weeks highlighted nine different states to monitor.
Two of those states could decide the election outright — especially if candidates fill the board in a similar pattern to 2016.
Joe Biden will need 38 electoral votes on top of the 232 he would get if the same voting patterns hold as they did for Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to CNN. And there are a number of paths to get there. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, would need to snag several of these states to stop Biden’s path.
There are seven other states that could move the needle one way or the other.
Here’s the breakdown.
States that could decide the election
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Biden is currently leading in most polls in Arizona by an average of four points, according to CNN. Arizona’s chunk of electoral votes could help push Biden closer to 270. Since he’s ahead in the polls, it’s one that would put him right on the path to victory.
Trump would be on a solid pace by winning Arizona, too, since it would steal one where Biden is leading and narrow Biden’s path.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
Trump — should he win Arizona — would need to win in Pennsylvania, too. Biden is hovering in the five- to seven-point range above Trump in Pennsylvania.
- “It’s basically a little less than the chance of flipping a coin in the air three times and having it land on heads all three times,” CNN reports,
States to watch:
Florida (29 electoral votes)
- It wouldn’t be an election without eyes on Florida. The state has 29 electoral college votes. The state is often pretty close. For context, the state went to President Trump by 1.2 percentage points in 2016. But a recent poll suggested Biden leads by one point, according to Politico.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
- This is an interesting state to watch. Early returns suggest Biden has an early lead because of a rise in turnout. But Republicans suggest in-person voting will swing the vote in their favor, Politico reports.
Michigan (16 electoral votes)
- Michigan won’t be counting votes early. But all eyes will be on Kent County in Michigan. It’s traditionally a Republican area. So if it leans in Biden’s favor, it could be an example of what might be happening to Trump nationwide, according to NBC News.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
- Early polls suggest the state could lean Democrat in the 2020 election. But President Trump has made several stops there in recent weeks, trying to swing the state back toward the GOP, according to Politico.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
- Trump dominated in North Carolina in 2016 with wins in the suburbs. But the recent polls suggest the state is swinging the other way this time around, and it may end up being too close to call, according to Politico. It’s an important state to monitor since it would have such a massive switch if it flipped toward Biden.
Texas (38 electoral votes)
- Texas has seen a major early voting turnout — so much so that it shattered the number of people who voted overall in the 2016 election, More than 9 million people voted early in 2020 after 8.96 million voted in total in 2016, according to CBS News. Polls suggest it might be a close race there, so you should sprinkle a little attention on the Lone Star State.