China has begun easing some of its “zero-COVID” rules. But many experts in the scientific and health communities worry that an onslaught of cases could follow.
The Guardian reported that COVID-19 testing booths were removed in Beijing Friday, while Shenzhen joined cities that no longer require commuters to show their test results in order to travel.
But multiple media outlets are reporting that the number of cases in China are close to setting a record. And the restrictions are beginning to lift “amid an economic slowdown and public frustration that has boiled over into unrest,” The Guardian said.
Some venues. such as offices, will still require proof of a negative test before people can enter. But many of China’s largest cities no longer require that to travel on public transportation or to enter supermarkets and parks, among other venues.
Per The Guardian, Xi Jinping, China’s president, has blamed an unusual spate of public protests on “youth frustrated by years of the pandemic, but said the now-dominant omicron variant of the virus paved the way for fewer restrictions.”
Omicron is easily spread, but its symptoms are often milder than some strains of COVID-19.
Fear of outbreak
Many are questioning whether lightening the rules is a good idea right now. According to a recent Reuters article, “Researchers have analysed how many deaths the country could see if it pivots to a full reopening, with most pointing to the country’s relatively low vaccination rates and lack of herd immunity as some of its most vulnerable spots.”
Death estimates range into the millions. Researchers from China and the United States estimated in May that just over 1.5 million people in China would die without the restrictions being in place, according to a separate Reuters report.
The highest estimate is “more than 2 million,” based on an estimate of deaths on mainland China alone in a paper published by the Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine.
Others have also offered estimates within those ranges.
Science reported that the “country’s severe approach to pandemic is inflaming the populace, but lifting it carries huge risk.”
Among the challenges, according to the article: “‘China has not achieved high vaccination rates, has not used the best type of vaccines, and it has been very slow in communicating (to the public) the eventual need to transition from elimination to suppression and mitigation,’ says public health scientist Nick Wilson of the University of Otago, Wellington, in New Zealand. Other countries that initially followed the zero-COVID-19 strategy, including New Zealand, used it to buy time to ramp up vaccination rates, stockpile antivirals, and boost intensive care capacity.”
China reportedly has not done that.
Science notes that “Hong Kong provides a cautionary tale: A big omicron outbreak early this year caused nearly 6,000 deaths, 96% of them in people 60 or older. At the time, Hong Kong’s vaccination rates were even lower than the mainland’s. In the first 3 months of this year, the city had a COVID-19 death rate of 37.7 per million population, among the highest anywhere.”
The pace of change
The BBC reports that people with COVID-19 no longer have to isolate in quarantine facilities if they have mild or no symptoms; they can recuperate at home, even as the country “is grappling with its biggest wave of infections — over 30,000 each day.”
Among other changes that the BBC explained, lockdowns will be targeted more tightly, instead of shutting down entire neighborhoods or communities.
Those in lockdown because of risk can come out after five days with no new cases found.
And schools will remain open for in-person education if there’s no wider-campus outbreak.
China is also trying to speed up vaccinations, particularly of older citizens.