Tropical Storm Erin continued its steady westward march across the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, with forecasters warning it could strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season later this week.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said on Monday that Erin formed just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, before pushing westward. As of Tuesday morning, its center was located roughly 1,890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Projected path and potential impact
The NHC cautions it’s still too soon to pinpoint Erin’s exact impact on the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, though the risk has grown since the weekend. There’s “even greater uncertainty” about possible effects in the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, Bermuda, and along the U.S. East Coast next week. Residents in those areas are urged to review and prepare their hurricane plans.
While Erin isn’t currently expected to make a direct strike on the U.S., ABC News reports it could become a hurricane by Thursday night and a powerful Category 3 storm by Sunday. Current forecasts show its track passing north of the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico, but meteorologists warn that even small shifts east or west could change the outcome significantly.
Even without landfall, Erin is expected to generate dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast from Aug. 21–25.
Erin’s early impacts
Drone footage from Cabo Verde, a group of islands about 385 miles off the African coast, showed the aftermath of flooding from the storm. CBS News noted that local news reported at least eight deaths and officials declared a state of emergency.
Atlantic hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs until Nov. 30. The average hurricane season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each year, based on data from 1991-2020.
Tropical cyclones become tropical storms when sustained winds reach 39–73 mph, are upgraded to hurricanes at 74 mph, and become “major” hurricanes at 111 mph or higher, corresponding to Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.