- Most of the U.S. is expected to have above average temperatures through the rest of the year.
- La Niña has officially arrived in the U.S., likely impacting winter weather.
- A nor'easter is making its way to the East Coast as the Southwest is hit with flood warnings.
It’s almost the middle of October, signaling fall is in full swing and winter is just around the corner. But what is the weather supposed to look, and feel, like in the upcoming months?
Weather forecasts are sharing a look at what weather will look like throughout the end of the year and how La Niña could impact winter in the U.S. For example, a flood watch warning has been issued in Utah over the weekend.
The nor’easter
A powerful nor’easter is on track to bring nasty weather to multiple states along the East Coast this weekend and into early next week. The storm is expected to bring fierce winds, drenching rain and dangerous seas, per CNN.
A nor’easter is a coastal storm named for the direction from which its winds slam into the coast: northeast. Nor’easters are known for being strong snow producers in the winter, but they can happen at anytime of year bringing heavy rains instead.
According to CNN, these types of storms are most frequent between September and April and typically develop between New Jersey and Georgia.
This weekend’s storm is expected to bring major coastal flooding and beach erosion along with the damaging winds and heavy rain. The disruptive weather will likely cause travel headaches for major airport hubs such as Washington D.C., New York City and Boston. The hazardous weather is expected to spread from the Carolinas to the Northeast.
The developing nor’easter is forecast to interact with another storm that is traveling southeastward across the Great Lakes, per USA Today.
In the South the nor’easter could bring up to six inches of rain along Florida’s east coast and as much as four inches along North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
What fall weather is expected to look like
Fall weather is expected to return in earnest across the country this week and into the beginning of next week. This will include a strong chill and a possibility of frost in multiple areas of the U.S., including the northeast, according to AccuWeather.
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, most of the country will experience above normal temperatures throughout the rest of the year.
The center also forecast what precipitation will look like through the end of the year. The Northwest is expected to see above normal amounts of precipitation.
Multiple states across the Four Corners area and into a portion of the South, including Texas, are expected to have below normal amounts of precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
This applies to the southeastern half of Utah as well. Florida is also expected to have above average amounts of precipitation.
How La Niña will impact weather in the U.S.
According to USA Today, La Niña has arrived. La Niña is a part of the natural climate cycle known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO. This cycle swings between cooler and warmer seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific and is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S.
La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the area and is the opposite of the well-known El Niño.
“A typical La Niña winter in the United States brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern states,” according to USA Today.
La Niña winters also tend to cause higher-than-normal average temperatures in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. According to CNN, La Niña could increase the amount of moisture in storms, causing more rain and snow.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared on Thursday that La Niña has arrived, but it likely won’t be very strong and could disappear in the next few months, according to The Associated Press.
“There is a three out of four chance it will remain a weak event,” Michelle L’Heureux, lead scientist on the NOAA team that studies both La Niña and El Niño wrote in an email to the AP. “A weaker event tends to exert less of an influence on the global circulation, so it’s possible there will be surprises ahead.”
Tropical storms in the Pacific cause flood watches across the Southwest
A combination of two recent hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean — Priscilla and Octave — are setting up a system of tropical moisture that is hitting the Desert Southwest, per The Washington Post. This will cause several days of flood risk across five southwestern states.
Most of Arizona has received a moderate flood risk warning from the National Weather Service, which includes the cities of Phoenix and Flagstaff. Flood watches have also been issued for portions of southeast California, eastern Nevada, southern Utah and southwest Colorado.
“Significant impacts are possible given the prolonged heavy rainfall potential,” the NWS warned, referencing “parallels to early October 2018, when remnants of Hurricane Rosa moved into the Great Basin and prompted extensive flash flood impacts across central Arizona.”
The rainfall and flood potential began to ramp up on Thursday in the area. The rain risks are expected to linger through at least early or midweek next week, according to The Washington Post. It is possible that widespread zones will receive two to five inches of rain next week and some areas could receive more than six inches.
Utah braces for another storm and potential flooding
A flood watch has been issued for a large portion of Utah, starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend. The flood watch comes as moisture moves into the state from the multiple storm systems in the Pacific.
It is expected that heavy rains will develop in southern and eastern Utah on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday, which could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, according to Fox 13.
There is some uncertainty about the storm’s track, so some areas may see more or less of the expected rainfall. The NWS said there’s a 10% chance of up to 4 inches of rain across the southern and eastern areas of the state.
The flood watch has been issued for mountain and valley areas stretching from the Wasatch Plateau to St. George, per KSL.com.
The Green River Fire Department is warning people in the area to avoid slot canyons and washes over the next few days and to “use caution when accessing backcountry areas, as roads may become impassable due to washouts,” per Fox 13.