SALT LAKE CITY — Republican Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox holds a big lead in the Utah governor’s race over his Democratic opponent, Chris Peterson, in new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll results released Monday.
Half of Utah likely voters said they would vote for Cox if the election were held today, and just over a quarter, 26%, said they would vote for Peterson. While 16% of voters said they still weren’t sure who they supported, 6% backed Libertarian Daniel Cottam, and 3%, Independent American Party candidate Gregory Duerden.
The poll was conducted by independent pollster Scott Rasmussen of 1,000 likely Utah voters Oct. 12-17 for the Deseret News and the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Hinckley Institute Director Jason Perry, who held key positions in two Republican gubernatorial administrations, suggested there’s still room for improvement for both candidates but little chance the outcome on Nov. 3 will be different.
“Although both candidates would like to be polling higher, Spencer Cox continues to maintain a significant lead that will be very difficult to close with just two weeks to Election Day and a significant amount of early voting already happening,” Perry said. “Even with 16% undecided, there are few surprises in this race.”
The winner of the gubernatorial race will succeed Republican Gov. Gary Herbert. Herbert chose not to run for reelection after more than a decade in office and endorsed his lieutenant governor in the hotly contested GOP gubernatorial primary.
Cox, the top finisher among state GOP convention delegates, beat three GOP candidates in the June 30 party primary: former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., former Utah House Speaker Greg Hughes and former Utah GOP Chairman Thomas Wright.
Peterson, a University of Utah law professor who worked on consumer issues in the Obama administration, won the Democratic nomination outright at his party’s state convention and did not face a primary in his first run for public office.
Rasmussen said the race was all but over once Huntsman, who ended up with just over 6,300 votes fewer votes than Cox in the primary, decided against a write-in campaign in the general election. Utah has not elected a Democratic governor in four decades.
“I would say that this race remained hypothetically competitive for as long as Huntsman did not rule out a write-in ballot. As soon as he made that decision, we knew what the outcome would be,” the pollster said, noting the governor’s race is much less intense than others in Utah, including for the 4th Congressional District seat.
That accounts for the larger number of undecided voters at this point in the election cycle, 16% compared to 22% in September, he said, adding he also “wouldn’t make too much of the fact that the Democrat who is trailing badly and is expected to lose is picking up a little ground.”
Last month’s poll by Rasmussen had Cox at 52% and Peterson at 19%, but the pollster said Cox’s slight drop is within the margin of error and Peterson’s gain is “the natural evolution of the process,” as voters make up their minds.
Peterson sees the numbers differently, suggesting the shift is a reaction to how Herbert and Cox are dealing with the state’s current spike in COVID-19 cases. The Democratic candidate has called for a statewide mask mandate since July, but the governor only recently implemented a mask requirement for events and social gatherings in counties with high-to-moderate transmission rates.
“This poll shows that momentum is trending our way as more voters learn about our campaign and are growing frustrated with the current administration’s mishandling of the COVID crisis,” Peterson said in a statement. “People want to know that their leaders will protect Utahns’ health and livelihoods. I have the plan to bring the coronavirus under control, grow our economy and improve public education. It’s time for a change in direction.”
Cox’s campaign manager, Austin Cox, talked about education issues in his statement about the poll results. The lieutenant governor, who initially led the state’s response to the deadly virus, has said education would have been the chief issue in the race had it not been for the pandemic.
“As we head into the final days of the campaign, Lt. Gov. Cox continues to not take anything for granted,” Austin Cox said. “He has focused his campaign on providing equal opportunity for all students and empowering teachers by eliminating burdensome regulations, and we hope that voters give us the chance to deliver on these commitments by electing Spencer as Utah’s next governor.”