SALT LAKE CITY — Health officials worry that Thanksgiving gatherings could become superspreader events in Utah, as active COVID-19 cases are already at an all-time high and a record number of new deaths — 26 — was reported on Wednesday.
The virus, which has impacted the world over, has now claimed 834 lives in Utah.
“Case trends in Utah and across the United States are at an all-time high,” said Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, an infectious disease physician with Intermountain Healthcare. He said that while vaccines are coming, they won’t be available in time for the holidays.
“Our level of COVID-19 transmission is so high that we recommend you don’t gather with anyone outside of your immediate family,” he said. “Any gathering, no matter how small, is going to increase transmission of COVID-19.”
Another 1,781 cases were reported on Wednesday in Utah — a slight decrease in the daily reported numbers after weeks of climbing case numbers. It brings the total number of known infections in the state to 183,902 since mid-March.
The Utah Department of Health will not be providing a COVID-19 update on Thursday and most test sites will be closed for the holiday.
The rolling seven-day average number of positive tests is 3,113 per day, with an average percent of positive tests now at 22%.
Stenehjem said there has been a spike in cases following every holiday since the pandemic began. And while the spread may appear to be slowing now, the impact on health systems following ill-advised Thanksgiving Day gatherings could be “dire.”
With more than 63,000 active COVID-19 cases in Utah, the risk of an infected guest showing up at Thanksgiving dinner can be as high as 96%, according to a risk assessment tool developed by scientists at Georgia Institute of Technology.
The tool uses current county data, the number of people invited and the current rates of infection to predict whether COVID-19 will be an uninvited guest at any get-together this weekend.
The risk is obviously higher in places where there are more active cases.
“Our home is a place where we let our guard down,” Stenehjem said, adding that it’s “a perfect place for transmission of the virus to occur.”
The ‘good fight’
Currently, 570 patients are hospitalized with COVID-19 and 207 of them require specialized care in Utah’s intensive care units. That is up from 552 hospitalized throughout Utah on Tuesday with 201 in the ICU — and 18 of the 26 deaths reported Wednesday were hospitalized patients.
All but Daggett, Rich and Piute counties are experiencing high levels of disease transmission, according to the Utah Department of Health.
ICUs are already at or near capacity in much of the state.
“Our health care workers are tired and fatigued, but they are continuing to fight the good fight,” Stenehjem said. He suspects hospitalizations will continue to increase for at least 10 to 14 days after case numbers start to decrease.
Every day gets busier, he said, adding that he expects more deaths to follow increasing numbers of hospitalizations in Utah.
Physicians at Huntsman Cancer Institute have signed a letter warning Utahns that if the current surge in COVID-19 cases continues and ICU beds remain above capacity, that cancer care may be delayed.
The message asks Utahns to wear masks, maintain social distance, wash hands and celebrate Thanksgiving with only the people in a household.
“Our community, state, and nation are facing the biggest public health emergency of our time ... and we have seen a dramatic impact on jobs and the economy. This pandemic has taken an incredible toll on all of us, and everyone desires a sense of normalcy,” the letter states.
It continues: “Utahns are known for our kindness, sense of community and dedication to helping fellow citizens. In order to keep our patients safe, we all must do our part to slow the spread of COVID-19.”
Utah Gov. Gary Herbert has just lifted restrictions on the number of people who can gather in Utah, allowing nonhousehold members the opportunity to get together for the holiday, but he has encouraged that those gatherings take place in well-ventilated areas and also include masks and social distancing.
A dirty situation
Routine testing at sewage plants shows the virus is increasingly infecting nearly every nook and cranny in Utah, including places where cases have been rare up until now.
Utah’s Department of Environmental Quality is collecting samples at 42 sewage treatment plants across Utah, representing approximately 80% of the state’s population. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, is shed in feces from infected people and the differing gene copies can be detected in the sewage plant tests.
Hot spots continue to surge all over the state, with increasing virus showing up in feces in populated areas and a decrease is showing up in a couple more rural areas, according to the map posted on the department’s web page.
The tri-county area in the Uinta Basin, however, is reporting that more people are testing positive with COVID-19, surpassing the number of active cases detected more than a month ago. Transmission levels in the area have been moderate until now.
The TriCounty Health Department joins other regional health departments throughout the state urging the public to help stop the spread by following current public health guidelines posted at coronavirus.utah.gov.
A statewide mask mandate is still in effect throughout Utah, with face masks required indoors and whenever social distancing isn’t possible outdoors.
Hope on the horizon?
National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said during an interview with C-SPAN on Wednesday that masks will likely be a part of life until “we have a blanket of herd immunity over our society.”
If 50% of Americans get vaccinated against the novel coronavirus, he said there will still be “considerable vulnerability of spread.” Fauci said any reluctance to get vaccinated “is understandable,” but the process for the upcoming COVID-19 vaccines, especially, has been transparent and safe. Two of the several vaccines in trial have proven to have at least a 95% efficacy rate.
He expects COVID-19 vaccines to begin distribution to high-priority people by mid-December.
“The only way we’ll put an end to this terrible outbreak is when we use this highly efficacious vaccine on a broad scale,” Fauci said.
The 26 new deaths reported Wednesday include:
- Salt Lake County man, 25-44
- Box Elder County man, older than 85, long-term care facility resident
- Utah County man, older than 85, long-term care facility resident
- Box Elder County man, 65-84, long-term care facility resident
- Summit County woman, 65-84, long-term care facility resident
- Davis County man, older than 85, long-term care facility resident
- Davis County man, 65-84
- Washington County woman, older than 85, long-term care facility resident
- Utah County woman, 65-84
- Duchesne County man, older than 85, hospitalized when he died
- Salt Lake County woman, older than 85
- Salt Lake County man, 45-64
- Salt Lake County woman, 65-84
- Davis County woman, 65-84, hospitalized
- Salt Lake County man, 65-84, hospitalized
- Salt Lake County woman, older than 85, hospitalized
- Sanpete County man, 65-84, hospitalized
- Sanpete County man, 65-84, hospitalized
- Salt Lake County woman, older than 85
- Washington County woman, 45-64, hospitalized
- Utah County woman, 65-84, hospitalized
- Utah County woman, 65-84, long-term care facility resident
- Utah County man, 65-84, hospitalized
- Davis County man, 25-44, hospitalized
- Utah County woman, older than 85, hospitalized
- Washington County woman, older than 85
New COVID-19 cases reported on Wednesday by health district:
- Salt Lake County, 762
- Utah County, 244
- Davis County, 185
- Southwest Utah, 155
- Weber-Morgan, 143
- Bear River, 75
- Wasatch County, 53
- Tooele County, 43
- Southeast Utah, 39
- Central Utah, 32
- TriCounty (Uinta Basin), 22
- Summit County, 22
- San Juan County, 6