SALT LAKE CITY — The state’s latest jobs numbers are in, but they have yet to fully reflect the economic downturn brought on by the coronavirus crisis.
The Utah Department of Workforce Services reported Friday the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March was estimated at 3.6%, with approximately 57,900 Utahns considered to be unemployed and actively seeking work. Nationally, the jobless rate registered at 4.4%.
Utah’s nonfarm payroll employment for the month grew by an estimated 2.6%, with the state economy generating 40,400 new jobs since March of last year. The number of Utahns considered gainfully employed registered at 1,583,000 workers.
The Department of Workforce Services noted, however, that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics bases its monthly employment and unemployment measures on only one week within each month — the week that includes the 12th day. Measurements for March 2020 were gathered before social distancing mandates were enacted, meaning the data compiled largely reflects early March employment information.
“The indicators in the March employment release depict a mix of a robust economic environment and Utah’s early experience with the adverse effects of coronavirus,” said DWS chief economist Mark Knold. “The impact of COVID-19 is evident in many of Utah’s industrial sectors as we monitor initial unemployment insurance claims and current job openings.”
The major effects on the coronavirus outbreak came later in the month, he added.
“I use the ‘cliff analogy’ where you’re walking and you’re about ready to fall over a cliff and this March was just when your foot was halfway on and halfway off,” Knold said. “One more step and you fall over the edge, but the measurement was (taken) before you took that one more step.”
He said April’s data should be a better reflection of the impact the downturn is having on the Utah employment economy. He noted the record number of unemployment insurance claims is a more accurate indicator of the local jobs picture than the most recent jobless data presented.
“That’s giving us a real-time picture of some of the amount of setback in the economy because not everybody was losing jobs and filing unemployment claims,” he said. Some who were ineligible, such as people who are self-employed or gig economy workers, were not counted in the unemployment data, he said, making the actual number of unemployed Utahns even greater than is currently being documented.
Knold said changes are being made to rectify that issue so that the employment count is a more precise representation of the state’s eligible workforce.
Meanwhile, a new report ranks Utah’s capital city as among the U.S. cities whose workers have felt less of an effect from the coronavirus outbreak and resulting economic slowdown.
According to a study by personal finance website MagnifyMoney.com, 13.97% of employees in the Salt Lake City metro area are employed in food service, personal care and retail industries, putting Salt Lake City at No. 5 in the study of the places with the least impacted local workforce. Utah County seat Provo was ranked at No. 25 for least impacted workforce in the study.
Researchers analyzed data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics regarding the above-referenced job sectors to determine where the fewest jobs were impacted by COVID-19, explained Derek Miller, senior research analyst at MagnifyMoney.com.
“We looked at food preparation workers, workers in the personal care and service industries, and also people in retail,” he said. Other groups of workers included were any whose occupations precluded them from working for home, he added.
Results of the study showed San Jose, California, had the lowest percentage of at-risk workers at 13.47% of the city’s overall workforce. He said larger cities with high populations tend to rank higher, which indicated that a more balanced economy that is not so reliant upon the three visitor- and service-based industries.
“The places with the lowest percentage of workers tend to be places with more diversified economies, that are slightly larger — maybe in the tech industry like San Jose,” he explained. “Whereas the cities that are really badly impacted are places that are summer destinations, where people come to travel and do fun things.”
Data showed that employees in food service, personal care and retail comprise between 15% and 18% of the workforce in large metros such as Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.
Locales that were most impacted by the coronavirus pandemic were concentrated primarily on the East Coast and in the South, with Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, feeling the heaviest effects, with one-third of the city’s workforce employed in food service, personal care or retail sectors.
Miller noted that areas with little industry outside of tourism have been hardest hit, including numerous places in Florida, and Las Vegas in the West. He said places that are less impacted can also look forward to a quicker rebound when the economy begins to open up again later this year.
“A lot of white collar work is least likely to be impacted,” he said. “But while these cities in the bottom 25 (least impacted) are probably in the best spots, I don’t think any is necessarily in a good spot (economically).”