SALT LAKE CITY — As Utah approaches Gov. Gary Herbert’s Aug. 1 deadline to decrease its rolling seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases to fewer than 500 or face increased restrictions, the state’s top epidemiologist is optimistic that Utahns can meet the challenge.
“We’re definitely going in the right direction. It’s going to take a continued effort over the next several weeks,” Dr. Angela Dunn, epidemiologist with the Utah Department of Health, told the Deseret News Monday.
To maintain the plateau, residents will need to continue wearing face masks when in public, staying home when ill, practicing effective hand hygiene, and taking other precautions, Dunn noted.
Utah health officials reported 436 new cases of the novel coronavirus and seven additional deaths on Monday. The current rolling seven-day average number of daily cases is 544 per day, and the positive test rate is 9.5%.
Although Utah has seen dramatic “ups and downs” in its daily case counts over the past two months, Dunn said Salt Lake County’s mask mandate implemented one month ago has led to “really drastic decreases.” The county used to account for upward of 50% of the state’s new cases.
Herbert’s office on Monday confirmed he is continuing to review data ahead of Saturday’s deadline and “will have various meetings and discussions throughout the week” about the state’s next move in the pandemic.
In early July, Herbert said Utah needs to reduce its rolling seven-day average to less than 500 cases by Aug. 1. “If we can’t do that, if we don’t do that, it may trigger some more aggressive action by the government,” Herbert said, hinting that such actions could include a statewide mask mandate. Many have called on the Utah governor to issue such a mandate.
Dunn, when asked what she would recommend if Utah can’t get its daily average below 500 by then, said the health department is recommending measures that have worked in other states and countries. But all those things, like wearing masks, can be done by individuals without a state policy, she said.
Dunn said she’s not sure whether more people are taking such precautions upon themselves throughout the state.
“It’s hard to tell kind of the trends statewide,” she said. “We know that Salt Lake County has seen an increase in face covering wearing, and we’re seeing some evidence in Summit County as well, but those are jurisdictions that we happen to have our finger on the pulse a little bit more.”
Cases in Utah and Davis counties, as well as the Southwest Utah health district, have continued to steadily increase. But statewide, Dunn said she believes cases are decreasing because people are “taking heed” of precautions.
“Things are decreasing a bit in terms of the numbers, so I’d say we’re on track,” said Dr. Tom Miller, University of Utah chief medical officer, who just over two weeks ago joined other hospital leaders from across the state to plea for a statewide mask mandate. “Whether or not we make the goal, I think if we do a few things, we will lower the rates of infectivity and we will do better and better.”
When asked whether he would urge the governor to issue a mask mandate if the state doesn’t meet the Aug. 1 goal, Miller said there appears to be more community buy-in to masking without a mandate.
“No one likes to be told what to do, but if the cases continue to decrease and there’s evidence that people are believing that masking is working, then I think that we will be successful and the case numbers will continue to go down,” he said.
“If we want to reach the goal, it’s about masking. I think more and more people are masking, and I think we are pretty clear that masking prevents spread. And so we’ll mask, watch physical distancing especially when indoors and wash their hands, I think those rates will go down below 500 pretty quickly,” Miller said.
Early on in the pandemic, health officials said masking wouldn’t work. That created widespread confusion when the advice changed, Miller noted.
“People want to know that what they’re doing is helpful,” he said. And now, as more evidence develops that wearing masks is helpful, Miller believes “the tide will turn” to where they become more accepted.
“I think we’re all learning to work through this. It’s complicated, it’s difficult, but if we link arms and think about those people that we want to protect — our families, our parents, our grandparents and those who have medical conditions — we’ll do the right thing to take care of the others that need care,” he said.
When Miller and leaders from the other largest health care organizations in the state called for a mask mandate earlier this month, they expressed fear that Utah was on the path to overwhelming its hospital capacity as cases continued to surge.
Hospital use now remains greater than a month ago, “but it’s plateaued, and we haven’t seen the kinds of admissions that they’ve seen in Arizona and Texas and Florida. And we’re very fortunate,” Miller said.
New cases
A lower-than-average number of tests were reported Monday after the Pioneer Day weekend, at 4,507 with a 9.7% positive rate, according to the Utah Department of Health. The new cases bring the state’s total since the pandemic began to 38,409 out of 509,858 people tested — a 6.5% positive rate.
The latest fatalities include four Salt Lake County residents — two men between ages 65-84; a man who was 45-64; and a woman older than 85. Three were long-term care residents.
Two San Juan County men, also long-term care residents — one between 45-64 and one between 65-84 — were among the deaths, as well as a Washington County man between 45-64, who was hospitalized when he died.
Currently, 207 people are hospitalized in Utah with the disease, three fewer than on Sunday. The state’s intensive care units are 59.3% full, and non-intensive care units are 45.9% full.
More than 25,000 of the state’s cases are considered recovered after passing the three-week point since their diagnoses.
The latest breakdown of Utah cases, hospitalizations and deaths by health district:
- Salt Lake County, 18,280; 1,181 hospitalized; 160 deaths.
- Utah County, 7,296; 337 hospitalized; 31 deaths.
- Southwest Utah, 2,781; 152 hospitalized; 23 deaths.
- Davis County, 2,743; 154 hospitalized; 11 deaths.
- Weber-Morgan, 2,375; 145 hospitalized; 24 deaths.
- Bear River (Box Elder, Cache, Rich), 2,099; 84 hospitalized; 5 deaths.
- Summit County, 673; 52 hospitalized; 1 death.
- San Juan County, 590; 74 hospitalized; 21 deaths.
- Wasatch County, 515; 20 hospitalized; 4 deaths.
- Tooele County, 498; 22 hospitalized; 0 deaths.
- Central Utah, 347; 19 hospitalized; 1 death.
- TriCounty (Uinta Basin), 142; 8 hospitalized; 0 deaths.
- Southeast Utah, 70; 5 hospitalized; 0 deaths.