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Protesters supporting former President Donald Trump march down Fifth Avenue in New York on March 5, 2021.
Protesters supporting former President Donald Trump march down Fifth Avenue on their way toward Times Square in New York on March 5, 2021.
John Minchillo, Associated Press

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Who would vote for Donald Trump in 2024? New Utah poll has answers

Nearly half of Utah voters say they would not choose the former GOP president if he were to run again

Half of Utahns would vote for or consider voting for Donald Trump if he were to run for president in 2024.

And 48% of Beehive State residents have a favorable opinion of the former president who continues to claim voter fraud cost him the 2020 election.

A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll found 24% of registered voters in the state would definitely vote for Trump in 2024. Another 26% would consider voting for him.

But 46% say they would not cast their ballot for Trump, while 4% don’t know, according to the survey.

“Although Utahns as a whole are divided on the former president, he still has strong support from his conservative Republican base and a significant portion stand ready to vote for him in 2024 if that becomes a possibility,” said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.

Dan Jones & Associates conducted the poll of 812 Utah registered voters Nov. 18-30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

Among those in the survey who identified themselves as Republicans, 39% would vote for Trump, while 34% would consider voting for him. Only 23% of Utah Republican voters say they would not choose him in 2024.

Of survey respondents who consider themselves “very conservative,” 53% would mark their ballot for the former president.

While a share of Republican Utah voters say they would get behind Trump, Democrats and unaffiliated voters would not. The poll found 91% of voters who identified themselves as Democrats and 62% who don’t affiliate with any political party wouldn’t vote for Trump.

“Utahns are ready to turn the page from the divisive and hateful rhetoric that Trump and his cronies embody, especially now that we have seen Joe Biden govern with the kind of steady, responsible, measured leadership that America deserves from a president,” a Utah Democratic Party spokesman said in response to the poll results.

“Additionally, nearly half of Utahns would not support Trump if he ran in 2024, because they know that the way to rise to the challenges we face is by moving our country forward, not backward.”

Previous Deseret News/Hinckley Institute polls found Utahns divided over how much blame Trump should take over the deadly incursion at the U.S. Capitol and whether the Senate should have convicted him for inciting an insurrection.

Investigators, experts and courts have found no widespread fraud in the 2020 election that Trump and his supporters claimed existed after he lost to Biden. But the former Republican president has relentlessly pushed the false narrative as he stirs rumors about another run for the presidency.

Demographics

If he were on the 2024 ticket, Trump would do better with men than women in Utah.

The poll found only 19% of women would vote for him, while 53% would not. Among men, 28% would pick Trump, while 40% would not. The remainder in both groups would consider voting for him or don’t know.

In 2016, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the predominant religion in Utah, rejected Trump in large numbers for a Republican state. He did better with church members in 2020.

Given the chance in 2024, 25% of survey respondents who identified themselves as “very active” Latter-day Saints would definitely vote for Trump, 30% would consider him and 40% would not vote for him. Among “somewhat active” church members, 25% would definitely choose Trump, 37% would consider him and 32% would not vote for the former president.

The survey found Utahns evenly split over what they currently think about Trump — 48% have favorable opinion of him, while 48% have unfavorable opinion, including 40% who have a very unfavorable opinion of the former president.

“Every president since Reagan saw a bump in their approvals during their final months in office. As with many other political norms, Trump is the exception,” Perry said.

Trump won Utah in 2020 with 58% of the vote. But he exited the White House with the lowest approval rating of his presidency nationwide and the lowest in Utah. As Trump left office, his favorability among Utahns dipped to 49% after being in the mid-50s for the most of his last year.

Nearly a year later, that is about where he remains.

“Almost a year after he left office, Donald Trump’s approval numbers in Utah are extremely poor,” the Utah Democratic Party says.

And, of course, more so with Democratic voters in the state. The poll shows 89% have a very unfavorable impression of Trump.

While Utahns overall are splintered over Trump, they are much less so about Biden. Results of a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll released earlier this week showed 63% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

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