So far, mortgage rates aren’t moving much as the impasse that shuttered the federal government continues.
The weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 6.34% on Thursday, the day after the shutdown of the U.S. government, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation that’s better known as Freddie Mac.
That’s a 0.04 percentage point increase from the week ending Sept. 25. Earlier in September, Freddie Mac’s weekly average for the same type of mortgage had fallen to 6.26%, the lowest rate since October 2024.
At Mortgage News Daily, the daily index for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage showed the same 6.34% rate midday Friday, but it was a slight drop of 0.02 percentage points. In mid-September, the site’s daily index was down to 6.13%.
“So far, there has been little impact on mortgage rates since the shutdown was announced. The market has been very flat,” Zions Bank mortgage manager Jeremy Holmgren said, adding that could change if Congress doesn’t find a way to fund the government soon.
“The longer the government shutdown lasts, the greater the chance it could impact mortgage rates,” Holmgren said. “Extended uncertainty in the markets often creates volatility, which can push rates higher or lower, depending on how investors react.”
Brief federal government shutdowns “typically have minimal effect” on mortgage rates, which are tied to long-term bond yields, he said, but “a prolonged one could add pressure and influence where rates head next.”
Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily described the rate’s response to the federal government’s closure as “effectively flat” on Thursday, when the daily index fell by just 0.01 percentage points and “hasn’t been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks.”
Graham said the shutdown means economic data compiled by the federal government that impacts mortgage rates, including a jobs report that had been scheduled to be released Friday, isn’t available.
“Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released,” he said. “This doesn’t mean rates can’t move between now and then — only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns.”
Mortgage rates had been dropping in anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time this year amid weak job growth. But after that decision was made last month, mortgage rates began heading up again.
Freddie Mac posted Thursday that even through the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased again this week, it’s still below the 52-week average of 6.71% and with the lower rates of the past few months, “homebuyers are feeling more confident to get into the market.”
That may not last, given that the shutdown could end up boosting mortgage rates.
Realtor.com warned earlier this week that if the shutdown drags on, “putting a blackout on gold-standard federal economic data,” there’s a greater risk of a sharp correction by the market once the information is available again.
The loss of government data comes at “a critical time in the monetary policy cycle,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com chief economist, said.
“Markets and investors will continue to make decisions with the best information available,” Hale said, “but when the information bottleneck finally clears and the government issues reports again, we may see a bigger adjustment in interest rates, including mortgage rates.”
Her prediction, Realtor.com said, is that mortgage rates will stay steady or rise only slightly while the federal government is shut down, and “then resume easing once the disruption resolves and federal economic data resumes.”