A meme making the rounds in the meteorological community may very well sum up Utah’s upcoming winter.
It depicts a U.S. map shaded in different colors to represent different accumulations, but it says “no one has any idea” rather than providing any numbers. In Utah’s case, federal meteorologists expect most of the state to have “equal chances” of precipitation this meteorological winter, meaning there’s no clear signal whether this season will be wetter, drier or near normal between Dec. 1 and Feb. 28, 2026.
It’s essentially a scientific way of saying nobody knows what to expect over the next three months, but the meme offers hope that Utah could receive storms that can drastically improve its water situation and help its resorts.
What’s in store for Utah this winter?
While most of the state is listed as having “equal chances,” a sliver of northern Utah does have slightly elevated odds when it comes to above-normal precipitation, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s final three-month meteorological winter outlook released on Thursday.
The Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies have the strongest precipitation odds, especially in western Montana and eastern Idaho. There’s a chance that Utah could benefit, depending on the jet stream that sets up, moving storms across the U.S., KSL meteorologist Devan Masciulli explains.
“The good news is that Utah is directly in the middle. ... When you have that active jet stream to the north, it does leave the door open for an active pattern before it goes back to quiet,” she said.
That has essentially been the case so far this water year. It opened on Oct. 1 with a record-setting pattern of storms, but a quieter November delayed the start of Utah’s ski season. That could be how the winter goes.
“I think it’s going to be like tug of war,” she added. “(An active pattern) might come later on in the winter season, or we could have, say, an active December, quiet January and maybe an active February.”
Meanwhile, most of the state has a slightly higher probability of above-normal temperatures, aside from the northernmost part of Utah, which has “equal chances” in that regard. Other long-range models indicate this winter could end warmer than normal, especially in southern Utah, Masciulli said. That, she said, could reflect a drier pattern setting up in that part of the state at that time.
However, the outlook comes with some caveats. It’s based on probabilities and doesn’t specify whether precipitation or temperatures will be drastically above or below normal. Utah’s normal over the past 30 years is 3.64 inches of precipitation and 29.3 degrees Fahrenheit, but it varies from region to region.
La Niña’s influence
The state’s outlook is par for the course when a La Niña oceanic pattern develops over the winter, which is the case this season. Storms generally enter through the Pacific Northwest, jet southeast through the Midwest and bounce through the Northeast, while the Southwest is generally drier than normal.
Utah can benefit from this setup, but sometimes it misses out on storms. It depends on the predominant jet stream.
A La Niña pattern developed last winter, and it produced a mixed bag for different regions. It was a fairly typical year for Utah’s northern half, but it was rough for central Utah and dismal for parts of southern Utah.
The three previous La Niña winters before that — 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23 — were even more chaotic. The first was one of the state’s driest winters on record, while the second was slightly below normal. The third shattered nearly every snowpack record imaginable, as the jet stream sent many storms through the state throughout the season.
Utah’s winter needs
Thursday’s outlook was released as the National Centers for Environmental Information also added new climate data that had been delayed by the federal shutdown. It confirmed the 2025 water year, which ended on Sept. 30, was Utah’s 11th driest over the last 130 years.
Last month was its 21st wettest October since 1895, chipping away at the water deficit, but 94% of the state remains in at least moderate drought, including nearly 40% in severe or extreme drought. Utah’s reservoir system also slid from 87% capacity in June to 60% in October.
Since 95% of the state’s water supply comes from the mountain snowpack, this winter figures to be vital in restoring the state’s lakes and reservoirs.
“We have a long road ahead,” Candice Hasenyager, director at the Utah Division of Water Resources, said last month.
Brian Steed, Utah’s Great Salt Lake commissioner, has kept a close eye on the long-range forecasts, as the lake also dropped to concerning levels again this summer. He said Thursday that the lake needs a “really, really big winter” to ease those concerns in 2026, but he’s also aware of La Niña’s unpredictability.
“If you look at those predictions, they’ve kind of been all over the place,” he said. “If we can have that (October) trend continue, that would be great.”