An incoming storm system may not be the biggest to hit Utah, but it should help break up the stagnant weather that’s contributed to the state’s all-important mountain snowpack falling to a record-low level.
However, it’s too early to know how much it will help the situation.
A wet week ahead?
A decaying cold front is forecast to pass through most of the state Monday afternoon, bringing clouds and some showers. While it’s not expected to bring much precipitation, it will open the door for moisture to return later this week, said KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson.
A trailing warm front will provide more clouds but some mountain snow showers on Tuesday, before a stronger wave of valley rain and mountain snow from a decaying atmospheric river is projected to arrive Wednesday morning. Precipitation could impact the morning commute across northern Utah, the Wasatch Front and even southwest Utah.
More precipitation is projected to continue in waves through Wednesday night, with another round of storms possible on Thursday.
How much precipitation?
The Wasatch Front and northern Utah may end up with 0.15 to 0.5 inches of precipitation by the end of Thursday, according to preliminary KSL Weather forecasting models. Parts of central and southern Utah may also receive over a quarter of an inch, likely closer to areas like Boulder, Cedar City and Price.
Lower totals are projected in areas closer to Fillmore, Moab and St. George.
“It gives us an idea of what could be moving in. ... It’s way better than the high-pressure we saw for the last three weeks,” Johnson said.
The National Weather Service projects that Alta and other high-elevation sites could end up with close to an inch of precipitation by Thursday, but it’s unclear yet how much of that will fall as snow. Federal forecasters point out that the system will bring in “breezy southwesterly winds,” which often keep temperatures warm and make it difficult to project snow lines.
Four to 10 inches of snow is forecast for several mountain sites, including Alta, Beaver Mountain, Ben Lomond Peak, Brian Head, Park City Mountain and Solitude Mountain Resort, according to the weather service. But its models, updated on Monday, acknowledge that those sites may only receive a few inches of snow based on temperature and other weather variables — and some sites may end up with over a foot of snow if ideal conditions align.
Snow line projections will likely become clearer by Tuesday night, Johnson said. Higher-than-usual snow lines are a key contributor to the state’s record-low snowpack, impacting many low- and mid-level snowpack basins, hydrologists have pointed out in recent weeks.
More to come?
Drier conditions are expected again by the start of the weekend, but long-range models hint at a bigger system arriving by the end of the weekend or early next week. Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center.
Anything helps for Utah’s snowpack at this point, which accounts for about 95% of the state’s water supply. The statewide average snowpack has failed to gain any snow water equivalent over the past month, falling from 76% of the state’s median average for Jan. 9 — at the end of the last stormy pattern — to 50% of the median average for Feb. 9.
The National Weather Service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center updated its snowpack runoff water outlook on Friday, projecting that many creeks, rivers and streams will end up with significantly below-average peaks this spring, barring a change in the weather.