- Lake Powell is releasing more water than it receives and, at 26% capacity, could fall below the 3,490-foot threshold needed for hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam.
- Colorado River states remain deadlocked over post-2007 water allocations, and the Bureau of Reclamation may step in to cut Lower Basin releases to prevent further declines.
- Officials are weighing temporary upstream releases from reservoirs like Flaming Gorge Dam, but Upper Basin leaders warn this would only delay the underlying demand imbalance.
Lake Powell has an issue: More water is streaming out than flowing in.
As of Sunday, Lake Powell’s water level measured 3,530 feet above sea level. Though this is higher than it was at this time in 2022 and 2023, officials in Utah and at the Bureau of Reclamation are worried that water levels could dip beneath what is required to generate hydropower.
The reservoir is currently 26% full and could drop to 16% by Sept. 30. By March 2027, Lake Powell’s elevations could hit 3,476 feet, a record low, the Colorado River Authority of Utah told the Deseret News.
In an announcement from last Friday, the National Park Service promised Lake Powell visitors, “lake access is not anticipated to be lost this summer.”
However, boaters “should anticipate increased congestion at Stateline Auxiliary Ramp,” if water levels continue to decline.
Aside from recreation, many homes across the West rely on the Glen Canyon Dam’s eight turbines, which can only generate electricity when Lake Powell’s water elevation is above 3,490 feet. When water dips below 3,370 feet, the lake becomes a dead pool, and water cannot pass through the dam.
At its maximum capacity, the Glen Canyon Dam generates 1,320 megawatts, which is enough to power about 1 million homes.
What are the options to keep Lake Powell above 3,490 feet?
To stabilize Lake Powell’s water levels, there are two options: increase the flow by releasing water from upper dams or decrease the amount of water taken out.
In the coming months, Colorado River states need to agree on their future water allocations from the Colorado River. Currently, Upper Basin states (Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming) are allocated 7.5 million acre-feet, and Lower Basin states (Arizona, California and Nevada) are allocated the same.
With the 2007 water agreements expiring in just a few months, and with the basins locked in a stalemate for the past 2½ years, the decision will likely be made by the Interior Department, headed by Secretary Doug Burgum.
The Bureau of Reclamation, a subsidiary of the Interior, has been very involved in predicting and modeling potential water scenarios in the next two years.
If deemed necessary, the bureau could restrict water released to the Lower Basin to 6 million acre-feet — down from the currently allowed 7.48 million.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s Upper Colorado Basin regional director, Wayne Pullan, told Circle of Blue, “I think it’s safe for us to assume that unless Mother Nature is uncharacteristically generous, that Lake Powell elevations are going to fluctuate at elevations that we’re not comfortable with.”
These cuts could be partnered with more water being released from upper dams, including Utah’s Flaming Gorge.
The issue with releasing water from upper dams
The Bureau of Reclamation is considering a release of 500,000 acre-feet of water from upstream reservoirs, including Flaming Gorge, as soon as May, CRA Utah’s executive director, Amy Haas, told the Deseret News.
The Upper Basin is hesitant to release water from dams above Lake Powell, if the water will simply be released to the Lower Basin, Utah’s Colorado River Commissioner Gene Shawcroft told the press on Feb. 13.
“If you assume that that water is available, then instead of just having Lake Powell and Lake Mead low, you end up in a situation where Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo are low, and you haven’t solved the problem,” Shawcroft said.
Water releases from upper dams could delay “the problem by maybe a year or possibly two, but you haven’t eliminated the problem,” he added. The problem is the demand, which “has been driven by use principally in the Lower Basin, and those demands can no longer be met.”
High water demands from Lower Basin states were initially met by storage from Lake Powell and Lake Mead, but “that storage is essentially gone,” Shawcroft said.
“So reductions have to occur to be on par with what the system will actually provide,” he said.
Haas added that Reclamation is under an obligation to “fully recover any water it releases from Flaming Gorge and other facilities to protect Lake Powell elevations.”
“Utah will insist that every drop released from Flaming Gorge be fully recovered once the release operation concludes,” she said.