Utah's drought makes 'rare' leap to the extreme, as its record-low snowpack melts

More than half of Utah suddenly finds itself in extreme drought, following record warmth that’s already melted most of Utah’s record-low snowpack.

Extreme drought or worse now blankets nearly 60% of the state, as compared to 7% of the state last week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That includes almost 1% in exceptional drought, as the worst drought condition that already developed in western Colorado has now extended across the border.

All other parts of the state are also in at least moderate drought for the first time this year, with over 80% in at least severe drought — nearly double the percentage listed just two weeks ago.

“Anomalous heat and record-low snowpack levels” caused drought to explode across the Intermountain West, David Simeral, a climatologist for the Western Regional Climate Center, wrote in an adjoining report.

Utah experts knew March’s weather would cause the state’s drought to worsen, but even they were taken aback by the leap.

“It’s rare to see the drought status over ... the whole state essentially change by one category in one drought update,” said Glen Merrill, a hydrologist for the National Weather Service.

Sudden drought severity

Drought is difficult to define, but the report generally mixes temperature, moisture, snowpack, soil moisture, stream flow, vegetation and a whole bunch of related data into one category to define conditions, Merrill explains.

This week’s report marks the first time any part of Utah has reached exceptional drought since January 2023, before a record-high snowpack that winter helped the state climb out of one of its worst droughts on record. It’s also the first time that at least half of the state has been listed in extreme drought since November 2022, shortly after that season’s water year began.

It follows what became yet another record-breaking month for the state. Statewide climate data for March has yet to be released, but Salt Lake City’s average temperature last month shattered the previous March record by 3.5 degrees, and many other communities also broke records.

“We’ve never seen temperatures in March like we saw this year,” Merrill told KSL, pointing to all-time March high temperatures of 97 degrees in St. George, 89 degrees in Provo and 84 degrees in Salt Lake City.

That piled onto record-high temperatures that had already factored into Utah’s ever-important snowpack, which accounts for about 95% of the state’s water supply. Thursday marks Utah’s normal snowpack peak, but experts have already accepted that this year’s statewide snowpack peaked at 8.3 inches of snow water equivalent on March 9 — a little more than half of Utah’s normal collection.

It’s the lowest statewide figure in the modern snowpack collection era, dating back to the 1980s, 1.9 inches below the previous low set in 2015. Jordan Clayton, a hydrologist for the Natural Resources Conservation Service, previously blamed record-warm temperatures for creating little to no snowpack in low- and mid-level basins this year.

Approximately two-thirds of this year’s poor collection has already melted prematurely in the March warmth, causing streamflows to peak in many areas. It’s left the current snowpack at nearly one-fifth of the median statewide average for the normal peak date, and closer to what’s normal for mid- to-late May, likely factoring in the increased drought intensity.

“We’re essentially going into the warm season one to two months early this year,” Merrill said. “It’s already rearing its head and showing itself with the latest degradation in the drought status.”

How spring storms can help

This week’s report doesn’t capture precipitation from a storm that swept over the state on Wednesday, which brought widespread valley rain and mountain snow. Another storm created some valley snow to parts of Utah on Thursday, delivering over half an inch of precipitation across many communities, and over an inch in parts of the Wasatch Front.

However, it’s unclear how it will affect next week’s drought report, and it’s a “drop in the bucket” when it comes to water supply, Merrill said.

It’s done very little to move Utah’s snowpack needle, while meteorological spring is normally the state’s wettest season, so this week is only helping many communities inch closer to what’s normal after a three-week dry spell last month.

That’s not to say there aren’t benefits. More storms like it can delay snowmelt and vegetation dryout, which can help reduce the impacts of drought before summer arrives, the state’s typical driest season.

“We want to keep seeing these rain events periodically just to keep things tamped down a little bit,” he said, adding that it would also reduce demand on Utah’s reservoirs, which are at 73% capacity with little snowmelt left to gain from.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center lists Utah as having slightly higher odds for above-average precipitation through mid-April, indicating more storms on the horizon, but the agency also notes that odds lean toward average-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in Utah throughout April and the next three months.

The latter could cause Utah’s drought to worsen, Simeral wrote. Some cities, like Salt Lake City, have already enacted water shortage plans, while firefighters across the state are also preparing for a potentially early and active season in case conditions worsen this year.