Among the newsletters whose timing strategies have beaten the stock market over the past four years, only one - Stockmarket Cycles (2260 Cahuenga Blvd., Suite 305, Los Angeles, Calif. 90068) - has come close to beating the market each of those four years, according to The Hulbert Financial Digest. Stockmarket Cycles' strategy earned 99.4 percent over the past four years, vs. 62.2 percent for a buy-and-hold strategy. Peter Eliades, Stockmarket Cycles' editor, now believes the market is forming an important top of at least intermediate-term proportions.
- "We do liquidation analysis and liquidation analysis only," Peter Cundill of Vancouver-based Cundill Value Fund recently told Forbes. By concentrating strictly on stocks worth more dead than alive, Cundill has made 19.6 percent annually on his money over the past decade. Recent favorite potential corpses: Evans Inc., Fidata, Trico (U.S.), Adelaide Steamship (Australia); Mountleigh Group (U.K.).- Electronics distribution stocks have nowhere to go but up, says Prescott Ball & Turben in Cleveland. "They've reached their lowest valuations in memory compared to the general market, and a recession this year seems increasingly unlikely." Prescott's recent three favorites are also experiencing higher sales and earnings and could rise 50 percent if they just reach their historic average price-earnings ratios: Anthem Electronics, Pioneer Standard, Premier Industrial.
- "In the current uncertain market environment, risk-aversive investors may prefer to own low-debt issues, particularly of companies that have demonstrated an ability to boost profits and dividends fairly steadily over various phases of the business cycle," says Standard & Poor's Outlook (25 Broadway, New York, N.Y. 10004). The Outlook recently recommended 28 stocks with relatively low P.E.s, very modest debt-to-equity ratios and high S&P rankings. Six had debt-to-equity ratios below 5 percent: American Home Products, H&R Block, Diebold, Hewlett-Packard, Houghton Mifflin, Raytheon.
- The fundamentals for silver haven't changed, despite its plunge to near $5, says Adrian Day's Investment Analyst (824 E. Baltimore St., Baltimore, Md. 21202). "Demand has been increasing, working through the enormous stockpiles from the beginning of the decade. Now, the supply/demand is pretty much in balance, a situation not seen since the late 1970s. With silver close to its lows, and a floor on the Maple Leaf coin, there's little risk at this point. This is the right investment at the right time."
- Douglas Casey, editor of Investing in Crisis (P.O. Box 5195, Helena, Mont. 59604), still believes agricultural commodities are underpriced. He advises buying the farthest out contracts and putting up 50 percent margin. "That way, if there's an adverse move, even a sizable one, you won't be socked with a margin call. You're treating commodities like blue-chip stocks or land, as long-term holdings."
- Bond fund managers seem equally divided between those preferring short- and long-term issues. One of the few advocating the middle course is Bruce Church of Composite Income Fund in Seattle. Church expects rates to turn down eventually but is insuring himself with intermediate-term bonds in case they don't. "We won't try to guess the turn. When it happens we may miss 5 percent of the rally, but we'll get most of it."
Investor's Notebook reflects the opinions of professionals. It does not endorse specific investments, and no endorsement is implied or should be inferred. For more information, contact the individual firms cited. (C) 1989 Universal Press Syndicate 4900 Main St., Kansas City, Mo. 64112