See if this sounds familiar.
A heavily Republican state hasn't had a Republican governor for years. One is finally elected, but he gets into political trouble in his first term. Democrats hunger for blood, believing the governor's problems - and the right-wing split within the Republican Party that comes with them - translate into votes. But in the next election few gains are made by the minority party.Sound like Utah? Sure.
But it's Arizona, where Democrats are a bit down these days because they didn't take the state Senate or the state House in 1988 after Republicans suffered perhaps their greatest humiliation ever: the impeachment - by a GOP-controlled Senate - of former Republican Gov. Evan Mecham.
Mecham's problems are well-known - a rapid-fire mouth that got him into trouble almost daily for three years, charges of improprieties in office and finally an impeachment conviction in the Senate and removal from office in April 1988 for obstruction of justice and misuse of a state protocol fund.
Democrats were elated. Mecham's demise would fuel a Democratic victory in legislative elections just six months away, they believed.
But it didn't. Democrats picked up only two House seats and two Senate seats. Republicans still control both bodies.
State Democratic Party assistant director Melodee Jackson puts the best light on the election, saying the four-seat gain is the best Democrats have done in 16 years. "And we have the governorship."
"They blew it," counters Kurt Davis, GOP state executive director. "They ran poor campaigns, many negative campaigns, that had little impact."
Democrat Gov. Rose Mofford - the former secretary of state who succeeded Mecham by law - faces election in 1990. She says she'll run, and no other Democrat has emerged to challenge her.
But Republicans will have a lot of candidates.
First off, Mecham is back. He's already announced he'll run again in 1990.
Democrats love that idea. As Jackson says, parodying the famous line from the movie Poltergeist II: "Heee's baaaack!!!"
Republican leaders are officially neutral. "Anyone who's registered as a Republican can run in our party," says Davis. But Mecham's impeachment "was a concern in the party, his problems had an effect on us, if anyone says anything else they're lying or have been out in the sun too much," Davis adds.
Also running is J. Fife Symington III, an old-guard Republican who has already been endorsed by former Sen. Barry Goldwater, an Arizona institution. Other, less substantial, candidates have also entered. More Republicans are expected to jump in.
The Arizona Republic, the state's leading newspaper, hasn't conducted any head-to-head polls yet. But an April poll by the paper showed that 67 percent had a favorable impression of Mofford as a candidate, 26 had an unfavorable impression. Mecham had a 20 percent favorable rating and a 75 percent unfavorable rating as a candidate. Most didn't have an opinion of Symington one way or the other - he just isn't well-known yet, said Republic Political Editor Laurie Roberts.
Mecham brings a whole slew of conservative Republicans - some call them Mechamites - along with him. Mechamites have defeated moderate Republicans in the Legislature and made life miserable for Democrats. "We've always had a conservative wing to the state party, although some in the media down here think this (intraparty fighting) is something new," says Davis.
Don't expect to see an independent candidacy by Mecham should he lose the Republican nomination, says Davis. "We have a state law that says the governor must win more than 50 percent of the vote to be elected, so any independent candidate in a three-way race is doomed."
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State's political makeup
Gov. Rose Mofford, D. (term ends '90)
Sen. Dennis DeConcini, D. (term ends '94)
Sen. John McCain, R. (term ends '92)
Dist. 1. Rep. John J. Rhodes III, R.
Dist. 2. Rep. Morris Udall, D.
Dist. 3. Rep. Bob Stump, R.
Dist. 4. Rep. John Kyl, R.
Dist. 5. Rep. Jim Kolbe, R.
State Senate: 17-13 Republican
State House: 34-26 Republican
Arizonans must register by party. April 1989 listings show 731,729 Republicans, 671,864 Democrats and 169,294 independents or minor party members.