Having made some predictions yesterday for this coming fall, let's check back on your local television editor's track record from last year.
On Sept. 2, 1990, I published a short review and forecast for each of the 34 new shows premiering on the four networks - including a estimation as to each program's quality and its chances in the ratings wars.Being as impartial as possible, of 31 shows the networks showed critics in advance, the forecasts for only five really missed the mark - I was too kind to "Babes," "The Fanelli Boys," "Gabriel's Fire" and "WIOU" and too hard on "Beverly Hills, 90210."
This is not to say the other 26 predictions were entirely correct. On several occasions individual shows were somewhat better or worse than predicted, both in terms of quality and performance.
And in my own defense, television series are perhaps the most difficult things to review. With movies or concerts or artwork, a critic can look at a finished product.
But with television series, critics often see just a single episode - or at most three or four. And it's impossible to say what's going to happen to the show in ensuing installments.
At any rate, here are few hits and misses from last fall's predictions.
BIG MISTAKES:
- Giving "Fresh Prince of Bel Air" 31/2 stars (out of four). The pilot was great, but the quality dropped dramatically (and immediately) in ensuing episodes.
- Saying "The Fanelli Boys" would probably win its time period on Wednesdays at 8 p.m. It finished a weak third there, got switched to another night and was eventually canceled.
- Giving "WIOU" 31/2 stars. Again, it had a great pilot but ended up being schizophrenic and obsessed with silly sexual subplots.
- A big, BIG mistake with "Babes." Would you believe I called it "One of the funniest new sitcoms of the year" and said it might out-perform its lead-in, "The Simpsons." (Well, I liked the pilot.)
- Saying that "Beverly Hills, 90210" " . . . sort of uneven and not quite sure what it wants to be." It ended up being one of the most pleasant surprises of the year.
LITTLE MISTAKES:
- Giving "The Trials of Rosie O'Neill" 31/2 stars was a bit generous. It was good, but not great, this past season.
- Giving "Gabriel's Fire" 31/2 stars. Two or 21/2 would have been more like it.
- Predicting that "Parenthood" and "Working It Out" would survive. As forecast, both were high-quality sitcoms poorly scheduled (at 7 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. Saturdays, respectively). But I didn't reckon with the stupidity of NBC programmers.
- Calling "True Colors" a "hit in the making." Well, at least it survived and will return in the fall.
CRUMMY SHOWS:
The following shows were predicted to be artistic failures. (Meaning junk, crummy, stinko, lousy, etc.):
"Hull High," "Parker Lewis Can't Lose," "America's Funniest People," "Uncle Buck," "Ferris Bueller," "Cop Rock," "Beverly Hills, 90210," "Over My Dead Body," "D.E.A.," "Going Places," "The Family Man," "Haywire" and "E.A.R.T.H. Force."
With the exception of "Beverly Hills, 90210," all of these lived down to expectations.
FAILURES-IN-THE-MAKING:
The following shows were predicted to be utter failures in the ratings:
"Hull High," "LifeStories," "Against the Law," "Uncle Buck," "Ferris Bueller," "Cop Rock," "The Flash," "Sons & Daughters," "D.E.A.," "Haywire," "E.A.R.T.H. Force" and "American Chronicles."
All 12 were canceled, and only "The Flash" survived a full season.
Do I know failure or what? . . .
UNEXPECTED FAILURES:
. . . Well, not necessarily.
I predicted at least limited success (although certainly not hit status) for "Get a Life," "The Fanelli Boys," "Married People," "WIOU," "Babes," "Over My Dead Body," "Going Places," "Parenthood," "Working It Out," and "American Dreamer" - all of which have been canceled.
(Although "Get a Life" may reappear on the Fox schedule at a later date.
A FEW SUCCESSES:
-"America's Funniest People" was forecast as "A sure hit, although it won't be as big a hit as `America's Funniest Home Videos" - both of which turned out to be true.
-"Fresh Prince of Bel Air" was forecast as the "biggest new hit of the season." It didn't quite fit the bill, but it was NBC most successful new show and one of the most successful on any network.
-"Lenny" wasn't given much of a chance at success, but as predicted, CBS tried it in several different time slots.
-"Cop Rock" was forecast as "too different for America to swallow." And a prediction that it would "be gone by Christmas" missed by a single day - its last airing was Dec. 26.
-I called "E.A.R.T.H. Force" "extremely stupid" and called the outlook for its success "dismal." As predicted, it was the first show canceled by any network last fall.
AMAZING FORESIGHT:
OK, your local television editor isn't often this right, so I'm going to gloat a little.
From Sept. 2: " `Evening Shade' . . . could well end up being moved to Mondays . . . "
CBS made the move on Nov. 19.
*****
(Additional information)
If any of you have any comments you'd like to share with the networks - whether you wnat to express your opinions about cancellations, renewels or anything else - here are the peolple to write to:
ABC: Robert Iger, ABC Entertainment President, 2040 Avenue of the Stars, Century City, CA, 90067.
CBS: Jeff Sagansky, CBS Entertainment President, 7800 Beverly Blvd., Los Angeles, CA, 90036.
NBC: Warren Littlefield, NBC Entertainment President, 3000 West Alameda, Burbank, CA, 91523.
Robert C. Wright, President/CEO NBC inc., Rockefeller Plaza, New York, NY, 10112.
Fox: Jamie Kellner, Fox Television President, Box 900, Beverly Hills, CA 90213.