Congressional candidate Ron Holt says the secret to a miraculous victory over Rep. Jim Hansen on Nov. 2 will be Independent Party challenger Dub Lawrence.
Holt, a Democrat from Layton, said Lawrence will draw ultraconservative votes away from Hansen, who is running for a seventh term as the 1st District's congressman."Dub will pull more votes away than the Independent Party candidate did during the last election," Holt said Friday.
Hansen beat Democrat Kenley Brunsdale in 1990 by eight points, when Independent candidate Reva Wadsworth drew only 4 percent of the votes. Holt projects Lawrence will get at least 10 percent of the vote this election, leading Holt to a 46-44 victory.
"I believe we'll capture the votes of more moderate Republicans," Holt said. "I'm ahead of where (Bruns-dale) was in the polls at this time in the election."
Brunsdale was down by 41 points in a September 1990 Deseret News/KSL TV poll that also showed 12 percent of 1st District voters were undecided. Last month's Deseret News/KSL TV poll showed Holt down to Hansen by 35 points with 15 percent undecided and 4 percent favoring Lawrence.
That means Holt will have to win 9 percent of the undecided (assuming Lawrence takes 6 percent) plus 12 percent more to beat Hansen.
He said strong media exposure, anti-incumbent sentiment and good showings from other Independent Party candidates like Merrill Cook and Ross Perot will put him over the top.
Hansen's campaign staff all but scoffed at Holt's projections. "Well, we don't think it's worthwhile in engaging in such wild speculation," said Hansen spokesman Peter Jenks. "That's just wild; a desperate plea."
Jenks said Hansen is confident he'll win as the polls project - by at least 30 percent.
If history is an accurate predictor, Holt will be lucky to win.
Hansen has seen three close races and three landslides in his six congressional campaigns, but he has won them all.
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Hansen victories
Year Hansen Democratic opponents
1980 52% 48% Gunn McKay
1982 63% 47% Stephen Dirks
1984 71% 28% Milt Abrams
1986 52% 48% Gunn McKay
1988 60% 40% Gunn McKay
1990 52% 44% Kenley Brunsdale