Now that Russia's Sunday elections are history, the world is left as uneasy as the Russian people. As snow fell across much of the country, voters went to the polls to ratify a new constitution and elect a new federal assembly, making a confusing choice among 13 parties.
The main question was whether 50 percent of the voters would participate in the referendum on the constitution, the minimum turnout needed to make it valid.The light turnout of 53 percent reflected Russians' weariness with politicians and disappointment that two years of free-market reforms have failed to raise living standards. But the biggest surprise was the strong showing of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's extreme right and badly misnamed Liberal Democratic Party with 21 percent of the vote.
When polling stopped two weeks ago, there was nothing to suggest that Zhirinovsky would do so well. What the polls apparently missed was the public disenchantment with the election campaign and the public appetite for Zhirinovsky's angry nationalism, bordering on fascism.
Zhirinovsky, 47, is an obscure lawyer who has operated for some time on the fringes of Russian politics.
His ideas have an undeniably bizarre quality. During the campaign, he promised to crush Baltic independence and annul Russia's 1867 sale of Alaska to the United States. He also sugggested expanding Russia's borders and shooting criminals. He thinks Israel should adopt Russian as an official language.
These ideas are disturbing to Americans who have been hoping to see a democratic Russia emerge. Besides, Zhirinovsky is already talking about running for president when Yeltsin's term ends in 1996.
Russia's Choice Party came in second with 19 percent. Its leader, Yegor Gaidar, is the architect of Yeltsin's economic reforms. He believes the most important task for the new Parliament is to "to try at any price to create an effective democratic coalition" in the lower house. Gaidar is also the leading critic of Zhirinovsky.
The Communist Party came in third in this election with 12 percent, and a pro-reform party led by Grigory Yavlinsky had 11 percent. The only other pro-reform efforts were lead by Mayor Anatoly Sobchak of St. Petersburg and Deputy Prime Minister Sergei M. Shakhrai. The democratic reformers will apparently pay dearly for their failure to reach a unified position.
It appears certain now that Zhirinovsky will become an important power broker. He has said that Russia needs "a third force that is not associated either with the radical democrats or the communists, who have been unable to agree."
Zhirinovsky would like to oust many members of Yeltsin's cabinet, but despite his strong showing, he probably lacks the clout to do that. Yet, if his influence continues to expand, and he becomes the leader Yeltsin must satisfy, he will move indisputably closer to the presidency.
Yeltsin will now clutch at one more chance to make his leadership work. Ironically, he will bank on the increased power the new constitution gives the presidency over parliament, even while his critics fear that such power could also pave the way for the creation of a presidential dictatorship.
The United States has little choice but to remain firmly in Yeltsin's corner. Zhirinovsky's alternative leadership would be dangerously unstable.