Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Russia's answer to Hitler, staggered the West by winning the popular vote in Russia's parliamentary elections. The West is staggered not because he will directly influence Russia's government. He will not. Boris Yeltsin's new constitution provides for a strong presidency that can practically ignore parliament.
The West is staggered because of what Zhirinovsky's victory tells us about the Russian people. And if what it tells us is true, then the entire post-Cold War strategy of the West - gradually bringing Russia into the Western security system - is built on sand.It is important to be clear who Zhirinovsky is. He is called far-right, ultranationalist, fascist. He is more a Nazi. He openly proclaims his ties with German neo-Nazis. He is frankly, crudely racist. He calls, for example, for Russian television to use only blond-haired, blue-eyed announcers.
He plays the same Nazi themes: virulent xenophobia, ethnic hatred and a contempt for democratic norms. He offers the same geopolitical cure: war for empire. He promises an Anschluss, forced union with neighboring lands where Russians live; and lebensraum, expansion onto the Indian Ocean. In a burst of moderation, he is not now pressing his claim to Alaska.
Zhirinovsky may not have Hitler's intelligence or single-mindedness. Then again, in 1930 nobody thought Hitler did either. And Hitler did not have 27,000 nuclear warheads. Zhirinovsky has spoken openly of using Russia's. "If a German looks at Russia the wrong way when I'm in the Kremlin," he has warned, "we will create new Hiroshimas and Nagasakis. I will not hesitate to deploy atomic weapons."
Consider, then, the message this election sends the world. The Russian people are offered their first free election since 1917, and they choose Zhirinovsky. He gets 24 percent of the popular vote, almost twice that of his nearest rival. The communists and their allies total another 30 percent.
True, the democrats were cosmically inept, squabbling, feuding, dividing their vote among four parties. True, Zhirinovsky is great on TV. True, Zhirinovsky's may have been a protest vote. But there were plenty of other places to park a protest. Instead it went to a Nazi.
Will Zhirinovsky come to power? Presidential elections are due in 1996 and Zhirinovsky already is running. It is possible that this time the democrats will get their act together and unite behind an attractive candidate. It is possible that the economy will pick up. It is possible that this election revealed not an ugly Russian mind, just an ugly Russian mood. Possible.
But even if the democrats manage to hang on to power now and through another presidential term, the message is clear. If in a free vote half of Russia chooses totalitarians, then over time, with the inevitable ebb and flow of political fortunes, democratic government cannot be secure. Russia will ever be only one economic downturn, one shift in popular mood, one badly managed election away from the abyss.
This has grave implications for the West. The key to global pacification, to eliminating the threat of major war, is bringing Russia into the West. Russia's democratization would mean that every great power save China had entered into quasi-alliance. It would guarantee a generation or two of relative peace.
The administration's "Partnership for Peace," offering NATO cooperation to Eastern Europe and Russia on equal terms, is based entirely on this assumption. But with a Russia half inclined to totalitarianism, such a partnership cannot endure. If Russia proves to be fundamentally non-Western, then the grand strategy comes to nothing.
What to do? Firmly support Yeltsin's Russia and firmly prepare for the possibility of another kind of Russia:
Halt the wholesale dismantling of our military establishment undertaken in the euphoria of the collapse of the Berlin Wall.
Halt the mindless dismantling of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. The Czechs have offered them a home. Accept.
Offer eventual but definite NATO membership to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic now while the political costs are relatively low. Yeltsin will protest. We should explain: We are not protecting against you but against Zhirinovsky. Can you guarantee that the likes of him will not succeed you?
Stop badgering Russia's neighbors to disarm. In particular, we can stop hectoring Ukraine to dismantle its nukes. The Ukrainians would be defenseless against a revanchist Russia. Certainly, we will not defend them. We ought not be stripping them of their one deterrent and bargaining chip.
Redouble our economic support for Yeltsin. President Clinton called for that in his news conference last weeks. Aides then told reporters that there is no money. Find it. And more important than aid is trade. Russia's private economy is being strangled in the crib by Western trade barriers. Eliminate them.
Make our support for Russian reform unequivocal but pointed. Make clear that so long as Russia follows a democratic path and pursues friendly relations with the West, we shall reciprocate. Make equally clear that we can reciprocate ill will too. We've had 40 years of practice.