Winding up his campaign for Sunday's presidential election, Eduard Shevardnadze has assured voters that he is the sole guarantor of Georgia's fragile stability.
The nation of 5.5 million people is still reeling from four ethnic and civil wars since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Shevardnadze himself narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in August.But Georgia has also seen a remarkable transformation in the past few months under the former Soviet foreign minister, who now leads his republic as chairman of parliament.
Firefights between warlords no longer rattle Tbilisi as they once did nightly. The sociable Georgians stay out late and stroll on Rustaveli Avenue, the main street. A bus ride is now paid for with shiny coins in a new currency, the lari, rather than a wad of grimy bills from Soviet days.
So when Shevardnadze told a reporter, "The question of the presidency is already decided," the confidence was well-founded. He's expected to be elected overwhelmingly as his native republic's first president.
"Three years ago there was anarchy. The economy was destroyed and run by criminal gangs," Shevardnadze said in a speech last week. "Today it's a different picture. The mafia has been dealt a decisive blow and we are in the first stage of economic rebirth."
The picture he drew was a bit rosy. Georgia's steady diet of civil and ethnic strife has set its economy back a century. Few Georgians feel better off now than in Soviet times.
Many impoverished professionals gather firewood in Tbilisi's parks and rely on relatives in the countryside for food. Thousands of men have had to leave to find jobs in relatively prosperous Russia.
Shevardnadze's main opponent in the elections, Communist Dzhum-ber Paatiashvili, has found considerable support calling for slower economic reforms in tones that evoke nostalgia for Soviet-era certainties. There are three other minor candidates.
Political instability is just below the surface. The territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have broken away, creating 250,000 refugees.
Many Georgians see Shevardnadze's agreement to allow Russian military bases in Georgia as a surrender to the Kremlin. Shevardnadze canceled a trip to America last month for fear of a coup attempt.
Opposition candidates complain about the amount of time on state television given to Shevardnadze and allege obstruction of their campaigns.
"It's not a clean campaign," said Paatiashvili, accusing officials of preventing him from holding meetings. "I get blocked at every step."
Yet Georgians still put their faith in Shevardnadze, who has declared the elections a referendum on his rule since 1992. Any protest is expected to take the form of voting for opposition parties for the next parliament.