Maybe players and owners both underestimated how much fans would turn against them.
Attendance is down 25 percent and national television ratings have gone down even more. One year after the work stoppage that was supposed to make baseball more profitable, the teams probably will lose at least $300 million."We've got a long way to come back," acting commissioner Bud Selig says. "But it's too early to make any snap judgments."
One month into the season, the 232-day strike appears to have caused vast aftereffects, far more than baseball's seven previous work stoppages:
-Through Tuesday, average attendance was 23,454, down 25.8 percent from last year's average of 31,611. When compared to a similar point last season, the average was down 20.3 percent. Team executives say group sales, which usually take place during the offseason, were hurt most by the strike.
-ESPN's first 14 games had a 1.5 cable rating, down 32 percent from the 2.2 rating for the first 14 games last year. This year's games were viewed by an average of 981,000 homes, down 29 percent from the average of 1,379,000 through 14 broadcasts last year.
-Polling done for owners by Penn & Schoen Associates showed that among fans who attended at least one game in 1994, 39 percent were not very likely or not at all likely to attend a game this year.
-Owners say revenue may drop to about $1.4 billion this year, down from $1.88 billion in 1993. Because team payrolls declined by less than 5 percent following the strike, expenses won't change that much. Teams spent $1.83 billion in 1993, and that figure probably will decline only by about $100 million because of missed salary during the first month of the season.
-The average salary, which has declined only once since 1967, figures to drop slightly this year, from $1,168,263 to about $1,115,000.
-The Fox Network says it won't even consider bidding for TV rights until there's a new collective bargaining agreement.
"They're a lot of things we have to do," Selig says. "There's going to have to be a lot of marketing, local and national, a lot of reaching out. It's going to have to become a permanent part of our existence."
Owners, led by Selig, tried hard not to criticize players during the labor negotiations. But by claiming baseball had financial problems the union refused to address, the teams wound up convincing many fans that players were to blame.
Attendance is down for 25 of the 28 teams. Polling and focus groups conducted by Penn & Schoen on May 8 show the anger level of fans remains high.
" is accentuated by the fact that fans understand that the strike was never truly settled," Douglas Schoen wrote to owners in a May 9 memorandum that was obtained by The Associated Press. "Fans carry with them a strong sense that the strike was pointless and . . . nothing was accomplished."
The men behind the owners' new advertising campaign, "Welcome to The Show," addressed fan anger by starting the campaign with commercials that avoided the use of players.
In addressing the clubs during a teleconference in late April, Jon Steel of Goodby Silverstein and Partners said his agency wanted to "avoid red herrings only likely to fuel fans' anger."
"That anger is being fueled by the media," Steel said during the meeting, a videotape of which was obtained by The AP. "A lot of them are waiting for you to screw up. They're looking for new reasons to be mad, more excuses to write negative articles."
Steel, the agency's director of planning, said broadcasting ads of stars such as Ken Griffey Jr. and Matt Williams would only remind fans of the potential records that weren't set last year. Later this season, the agency is planning to use ads including 1995's stars.
Initial spots focused on an organist, a person mowing the outfield grass and Bill Lee talking about pitching.
"I still think the first thing in the marketing issue is to get a long-term agreement between the parties," Colorado Rockies chairman Jerry McMorris says.
Selig and union head Donald Fehr probably will meet sometime within two weeks to figure out the next step in negotiations, which broke off March 30. Owners still don't know if they want to go back to a salary cap proposal, which would cause players to start preparing for another work stoppage, probably next year.
"I'm sure Bud and I will be talking," Fehr says.
Owners still face a June 19 trial on an unfair labor practice complaint stemming from the strike. But they have been getting along better with the players' association of late.
*****
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Baseball's woes
Ratings comparison
NEW YORK (AP) - A comparison of ESPN's baseball ratings at this point in 1995 compared with 1994, as compiled by Nielsen Media Research:
Year Rating Households
1995 1.5 981,000
1994 2.2 1,379,000
%Drop 32% 29%
Attendance comparison
NEW YORK (AP) - A comparison of major league baseball attendance through May 23 and the point last season when each club had played the same number of home dates, as compiled by major league baseball.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Team 1995 1994
Days Ave. Ave.
Baltimore 12 38,610 46,212
Toronto 14 36,625 48,065
Cleveland 8 33,713 34,245
Boston 13 27,981 27,561
Seattle 8 23,895 25,693
Texas 17 23,316 35,949
N.Y. Yankees 12 22,130 23,526
Chicago WS 13 20,709 27,771
California 11 19,731 27,749
Detroit 11 19,036 16,040
Oakland 8 16,735 22,091
Kansas City 13 15,550 19,779
Minnesota 17 14,008 19,641
Milwaukee 12 12,438 21,809
Totals 168 22,887 28,353
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Team 1995 1994
Days Ave. Ave.
Colorado 13 43,315 54,475
Los Angeles 13 36,664 38,312
Philadelphia 9 31,123 34,677
Atlanta 16 31,043 45,633
Chicago Cubs 8 25,822 28,148
Cincinnati 13 23,965 27,947
St. Louis 13 23,741 31,723
Florida 14 23,666 34,218
N.Y. Mets 11 22,331 20,302
Montreal 11 19,875 20,108
Houston 12 16,201 25,352
San Francisco 16 14,955 28,130
Pittsburgh 9 14,450 17,680
San Diego 18 12,257 17,004
Totals 176 23,996 30,639
Major leagues344 23,454 29,439