FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — Hurricane forecaster William Gray said Thursday the 2000 season will not be as bad as first predicted.
In his June forecast, the Colorado State University professor predicted 12 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Data received since the official start of the season June 1 have convinced Gray there will be only 11 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
He said cooler Atlantic Ocean surface water temperatures and a weakening La Nia are responsible for the declining threat. The season still will be busier than the average of 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 major hurricanes.
The late onset of storms is not a factor in his decision to revise his forecast.
"The fact that we haven't had an early season storm doesn't mean anything," Gray said. "There is no correlation between June and July storms and what may take place later in the season; in fact, there's some evidence for a slight negative correlation (i.e., the absence of early season storms is made up for by late-season activity.)"
He said he expects the main season to occur more or less on scheduled during the 60 days starting Aug. 20.
"We thought we had verification that La Nia would continue relatively strong throughout the season, but it appears to be fading a little more rapidly than we expected," Gray said. "Under those circumstances, we're reducing our early June forecast numbers a little, although people should remember that there still is the possibility of this being a very active season, especially compared with the 1970-1994 period."
Gray has warned that a decline in hurricanes from 1970-94 has lulled southeastern coastal dwellers into a false sense of security.
What coastal dwellers should anticipate, Gray said, is an active hurricane season but slightly weaker than those that occurred in 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999. The five years beginning in 1995 constitute the five most active consecutive years of hurricane activity in history, producing 65 named storms, 41 hurricanes and 20 major hurricanes.
On the Net:
CSU's Department of Atmospheric Science: www.atmos.colostate.edu/whatsnew.html