There's one thing you won't have to worry about this holiday shopping season: Fighting the crowds to snag that one hot gift item before it sells out.
In years past, products such as Tickle Me Elmo and Xbox 360 were so much in demand that stores across the country sold out of them within hours. But this year, there isn't a must-have toy or electronic gadget, due largely to toy makers postponing new product launches, retailers aggressively planning their holiday inventory, and video game manufacturers being in the middle of their product launch cycles.
"Everything available this year was available last year," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at NPD Group, a retail market research firm. "There isn't a new thing out there. There's only new styles, new models. Even the iPods aren't new — there are just new colors."
Retailers, toy makers, and electronics manufacturers historically have depended on a new "it" product to generate buzz and boost demand during the busiest shopping season of the year. (Think Cabbage Patch Kids craze of the 1980s or Apple's iPod in 2001.)
The items were used to lure shoppers into stores. And the fact that the products were in limited supply was part of the allure for many consumers who braved long lines and chaos in the stores to buy the gifts.
The absence of a must-have gift this year comes at a precarious time for retailers, many of which generate as much as a third of their profits over the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Merchants already are bracing for the worst holiday season in decades as consumers squeezed by investment losses, stagnant wages, and layoffs slash holiday spending. NPD Group expects overall retail holiday sales to be down 2 to 3 percent from last year, with sales of toys and consumer electronics each sliding 2 to 4 percent.
"It's devastating when there's no product that people want because that's what gets people to the store," said Gareb Shamus, publisher of Toy Wishes magazine.
While items such as digital cameras and Nintendo Wii video game consoles are still popular this year, retail analysts say the lack of a single "it" gift is in large part due to the recession, which prompted more careful planning by retailers and manufacturers who in previous years had sold out of popular products as early as the day after Thanksgiving.
Even though retailers cut overall holiday orders by 17 to 20 percent over the summer, according to NPD Group, retail analysts say some merchants planned their holiday inventory carefully to ensure potentially popular items would be in stock.
For example, toy maker Fisher-Price and retailers Wal-Mart, Kmart, Target, and Toys 'R' Us began taking orders for the $60 Elmo Live in August. Fisher-Price said its new talking Elmo doll is selling well but has not sold out yet. In contrast, the $28 Tickle Me Elmo that debuted in 1996 was sold out the day after Thanksgiving.
"This year, Fisher-Price was better prepared to meet demand than ever before," said Vince Smart, Fisher-Price director of marketing. Allowing customers to order "enabled us to better gauge what demand would be."
Retail experts say manufacturers also have a lot to do with the absence of a single hot item. For one, they say video game console manufacturers are in the middle of their four- to five-year product launch cycles. So while gamers camped out to claim an Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, or Nintendo Wii over the past few holidays seasons, this year there is no next-generation gaming system to brave the cold for.
Additionally, some toy makers are holding back on releasing new pricey toys, said Reyne Rice, a toy trends specialist for the Toy Industry Association who met throughout the year with toy makers.
She said she knows of about five toys with "really amazing computer-chip technology" priced above $200 that weren't released this holiday season because toy makers thought consumers wouldn't be willing to pay for expensive toys during a recession.
Rice said the lack of a hot gift item may actually help merchants ring up more sales: "If there's one hot item, sometimes consumers will just run in, look for that one hot item, and leave the store," she said.
This year, "they're really opening up their blinders to a wider possibility of what their kids could like."
But for some shoppers, having too many options is a bad thing. Anne Knight, 47, of Medford recently spent half an hour combing the aisles of CambridgeSide Galleria's KB Toys store trying to find presents for 15 nieces and nephews who range from toddlers to preteens. The elementary school literary specialist left the store with a few toys — and a lot more hunting to do.
Knight said the lack of a one popular gift item "makes it a lot harder" to shop.