When BYU has the ball
BYU's offense ranks a respectable 42nd nationally in the S&P+, a strength-of-schedule-adjusted, advanced statistical metric. But BYU's offense will need to be more than respectable going up against a Utah defense that ranks 20th. BYU's offense has struggled all year against top 20 defenses (see Michigan and Missouri). I expect the same this Saturday in the Las Vegas Bowl.
BYU's offense has excelled in finishing drives, ranking 11th in the S&P+ in that category. So if BYU gets inside the opponents' 40, it has a good shot of scoring. Something will have to give Saturday, however, as Utah's defense ranks 19th in preventing offenses from finishing their drives. Utah also ranks 12th in defensive explosiveness (i.e., big-play ability).
BYU should find it very hard to gain much traction in the running game. Utah's defense ranks fourth against the run in the S&P+. Meanwhile, BYU's rushing attack ranks 63rd.
BYU will likely have more success passing the ball as it ranks 33rd in the S&P+ in that category. It still will not be easy, though, as Utah ranks 28th in pass defense. Utah's defense also excels in making big plays in passing down situations, ranking eighth in that category.
The strength of Utah's defense is its defensive line, which ranks seventh in creating havoc. Utah's front seven has been decent in getting to the quarterback, ranking 41st in adjusted sack rate.
As it is every time these two teams face off, turnovers will be key. Utah is ranked 15th in expected turnover margin, while BYU is ranked 62nd. Turnovers will likely be the difference in what is expected to be a close game.
When Utah has the ball
Utah is ranked 54th offensively in the S&P+. But Utah is just about the least explosive offense in college football, ranking 126th. Even with Devontae Booker, whose status for the game is still up in the air, Utah ranks just 71st in rushing the ball, although Utah is efficient, ranking 45th in rush efficiency.
Utah's pass offense is worse than its run game, ranking 88th; and it is ranked 107th in pass game explosiveness. I would not expect too many big pass plays from Utah as BYU's defense ranks ninth in preventing such plays.
BYU may have difficulty getting pressure on Utah QB Travis Wilson as Utah is 34th offensively in adjusted sack rate. That ranking drops to 72nd however in obvious passing situations.
I expect Utah could have a hard time moving the ball against BYU's defense, especially if Booker and wide receiver Britain Covey are out.
When the ball is kicked
Surprisingly, BYU's special teams rank ahead of Utah's in ESPN's special teams efficiency ranking (32 to 40). But don't be fooled. Utah has plenty going for it on special teams.
Utah's punter, Tom Hackett, just won his second consecutive Ray Guy Award as the best punter in the nation. A little over 76 percent of his punts are either fair caught or placed inside the 20-yard line.
Utah is also solid in kick and punt returns, but Covey will be missed on punt returns if he cannot play.
When Utah kicks off, BYU's returners should have a shot at returning the ball because only 25 percent of Andy Phillips' kickoffs result in touchbacks.
If this game comes down to a last-second field goal, it is a toss-up as to which team has the advantage. Utah's kicker converts a hair over 85 percent of his field goal attempts, while BYU's Trevor Samson converts a tad over 87 percent of his attempts.
Prediction: Utah 27, BYU 26