When news broke this week that Lone Peak would be forced to forfeit five wins, the biggest talking point around high school football immediately shifted to the RPI rankings and how far the Knights would fall.
The official final RPI rankings will be released by the Utah High School Activities Association on Saturday, but the Deseret News is projecting that Lone Peak will fall all the way to a No. 20 seed in the 6A playoffs and will open the first round at No. 13 Fremont next week.
The Deseret News high school sports staff crunched numbers using the RPI formula listed on UHSAA.org — including making projections of the winners in Friday’s final two games — to come up with a projected final RPI rankings that will be released on Saturday.
The Deseret News estimates these rankings to be about 95% accurate, but slight movement is still likely because surrounding states have a full slate of football games on Friday night.
The results of those games will have a trickle-down effect on the calculations of opponent’s winning percentage and the opponents opponent’s winning percentage.
The projected top teams in each classification are Corner Canyon (6A), Salem Hills (5A), Park City (4A), North Sanpete (3A) and Beaver (2A).
Those were the same five teams ranked No. 1 their respective classification after week 8. The UHSAA removed the RPI rankings from its website during the final two weeks of the regular season.
Lone Peak was No. 7 during that most recent ranking, but after forfeiting five games the Deseret News projects that the defending 6A state champs will fall 13 places.
The top five teams in 6A get first-round byes, and the Deseret News is projecting those teams will be Corner Canyon, Herriman, Bingham, Kearns and Skyridge.
In 5A the top six teams get byes, and those projected teams are Salem Hills, Farmington, Olympus, Provo, Brighton and Woods Cross.
Of note, Orem will likely finish as the No. 12 seed after dropping its regular-season finale to Lehi and is projected to host No. 21 seed Viewmont in the first round. With a win, it would likely face No. 5 Brighton in the second round.
In 4A the top 10 teams get byes in the first round next Friday, which will likely be Park City, Sky View, Dixie, Green Canyon, Mountain View, Pine View, Stansbury, Desert Hills, Snow Canyon and Tooele.
One of the biggest complaints from coaches throughout the season about the RPI has been that it minimizes the importance of success in region.
There’s several examples of that in the final projected rankings, particularly in 4A as Mountain Crest finished second in Region 11 ahead of Green Canyon, but the Mustangs are projected to get a No. 11 RPI seed while Green Canyon gets a No. 4 RPI seed.
The UHSAA has been clear that with the RPI formula every games matters, and region play only constitutes half the regular season for most teams.
In 3A, only 16 of 18 teams qualify for the playoffs and the Deseret News is projecting that No. 17 Judge Memorial and No. 18 Carbon will be the two teams left out.
Manti was ranked No. 2 in the RPI rankings after Week 8, but the Deseret News is projecting that it will fall out of the top four in Saturday’s final rankings with North Sanpete, Juab, Grantsville and Morgan rounding out the top four, which gives them the inside track on two home games and the easiest path to the semifinals.
In 2A the top three teams projected to get byes are Beaver, Milford and Duchesne.
Projected 6A RPI rankings and first-round games
1. Corner Canyon (.676)
2. Herriman (.603)
3. Bingham (.589)
4. Kearns (.572)
5. Skyridge (.559)
6. East (.556)
7. Syracuse (.545)
8. American Fork (.543)
9. Roy (.518)
10. Hunter (.5137)
11. Weber (.5135)
12. Pleasant Grove (.512)
13. Fremont (.494)
14. Riverton (.489)
15. West Jordan (.443)
16. Davis (.423)
17. Westlake (.403)
18. West (.3933)
19. Jordan (.3931)
20. Lone Peak (.353)
21. Copper Hills (.351)
22. Layton (.340)
23. Northridge (.337)
24. Taylorsville (.332)
25. Cyprus (.314)
26. Clearfield (.279)
27. Granger (.267)
Bracket
No. 1 Corner Canyon - Bye
No. 17 Westlake at No. 16 Davis
No. 24 Taylorsville at No. 9 Roy
No. 25 Cyprus at No. 8 American Fork
No. 5 Skyridge - Bye
No. 21 Copper Hills at No. 12 Pleasant Grove
No. 20 Lone Peak at No. 13 Fremont
No. 4 Kearns - Bye
No. 3 Bingham - Bye
No. 19 Jordan at No. 14 Riverton
No. 22 Layton at No. 11 Weber
No. 27 Granger at No. 6 East
No. 26 Clearfield at No. 7 Syracuse
No. 23 Northridge at No. 10 Hunter
No. 18 West at No. 15 West Jordan
No. 2 Herriman - Bye
Projected 5A RPI rankings and first-round games
1. Salem Hills (.659)
2. Farmington (.608)
3. Olympus (.606)
4. Provo (.600)
5. Brighton (.592)
6. Woods Cross (.580)
7. Springville (.557)
8. Highland (.550)
9. Wasatch (.536)
10. Timpview (.523)
11. Lehi (.510)
12. Orem (.504)
13. Murray (.502)
14. Bonneville (.500)
15. Alta (.480)
16. Maple Mountain (.446)
17. Bountiful (.435)
18. Box Elder (.4022)
19. Skyline (.4018)
20. Spanish Fork (.401)
21. Viewmont (.380)
22. Payson (.371)
23. Hillcrest (.336)
24. Timpanogos (.311)
25. Mountain Ridge (.256)
26. Cottonwood (.251)
Bracket
No. 1 Salem Hills - Bye
No. 17 Bountiful at No. 16 Maple Mountain
No. 24 Timpanogos at No. 9 Wasatch
No. 25 Mountain Ridge at No. 8 Highland
No. 5 Brighton - Bye
No. 21 Viewmont at No. 12 Orem
No. 20 Spanish Fork at No. 13 Murray
No. 4 Provo- Bye
No. 3 Olympus - Bye
No. 19 Skyline at No. 14 Bonneville
No. 22 Payson at No. 11 Lehi
No. 6 Woods Cross - Bye
No. 26 Cottonwood at No. 7 Springville
No. 23 Hillcrest at No. 10 Timpview
No. 18 Box Elder at No. 15 Alta
No. 2 Farmington - Bye
Projected 4A RPI rankings and first-round games
1. Park City (.665)
2. Sky View (.584)
3. Dixie (.569)
4. Green Canyon (.556)
5. Mountain View (.547)
6. Pine View (.544)
7. Stansbury (.540)
8. Desert Hills (.463)
9. Snow Canyon (.462)
10. Tooele (.442)
11. Mountain Crest (.425)
12. Cedar City (.424)
13. Bear River (.420)
14. Ridgeline (.410)
15. Cedar Valley (.409)
16. Logan (.400)
17. Ogden (.385)
18. Canyon View (.308)
19. Hurricane (.306)
20. Crimson Cliffs (.301)
21. Ben Lomond (.298)
22. Uintah (.266)
Bracket
No. 1 Park City - Bye
No. 17 Ogden at No. 16 Logan
No. 9 Wasatch - Bye
No. 8 Highland - Bye
No. 5 Mountain View - Bye
No. 21 Ben Lomond at No. 12 Cedar City
No. 20 Crimson Cliffs at No. 13 Bear River
No. 4 Green Canyon - Bye
No. 3 Dixie - Bye
No. 19 Hurricane at No. 14 Ridgeline
No. 22 Uintah at No. 11 Mountain Crest
No. 6 Pine View - Bye
No. 7 Springville - Bye
No. 10 Tooele - Bye
No. 18 Canyon View at No. 15 Cedar Valley
No. 2 Sky View - Bye
Projected 3A RPI rankings and first-round games
1. North Sanpete (.634)
2. Juab (.628)
3. Grantsville (.618)
4. Morgan (.609)
5. Manti (.607)
6. San Juan (.553)
7. American Leadership (.480)
8. Juan Diego (.475)
9. Summit Academy (.459)
10. Richfield (.458)
11. South Summit (.454)
12. Delta (.453)
13. Grand (.423)
14. Union (.373)
15. Emery (.328)
16. South Sevier (.325)
17. Judge Memorial (.291)
18. Carbon (.266)
Bracket
No. 16 South Sevier at No. 1 North Sanpete
No. 9 Summit Academy at No. 8 Juan Diego
No. 12 Delta at No. 5 Manti
No. 13 Grand at No. 4 Morgan
No. 14 Union at No. 3 Grantsville
No. 11 South Summit at No. 6 San Juan
No. 10 Richfield at No. 7 American Leadership
No. 15 Emery at No. 2 Juab
Projected 2A RPI rankings and first-round games
1. Beaver (.705)
2. Milford (.669)
3. Duchesne (.616)
4. Millard (.607)
5. Monticello (.526)
6. Enterprise (.506)
7. North Summit (.498)
8. Parowan (.488)
9. Kanab (.446)
10. North Sevier (.412)
11. Layton Christian (.402)
12. Gunnison Valley (.342)
13. Rich (.283)
Bracket
No. 1 Beaver - Bye
No. 9 Kanab at No. 8 Parowan
No. 12 Gunnison Valley at No. 5 Monticello
No. 13 Rich at No. 4 Millard
No. 3 Grantsville - Bye
No. 11 Layton Christian at No. 6 Enterprise
No. 10 North Sevier at No. 7 North Summit
No. 2 Milford - Bye