The New York Times, Bloomberg and The Hill have all run articles recently that discuss how hard it is to predict the results of the impending midterm elections in November. Both the Senate and the House could theoretically go either way and different outlets have different predictions.
Here’s an explainer on who’s predicting what for the midterms this year and why the midterms are so difficult to predict.
Who will win the midterms in 2022?
While it’s still unknown who will win, there are some predictions that have been made.
The Economist predicts that Democrats will keep the Senate and Republicans will gain a slight majority in the House.
- According to The Economist, Democrats win the majority in the Senate in 81 out of 100 simulations.
- Republicans win the majority in the House in 67 out of 100 simulations, according to The Economist.
- The Economist indicates that Sen. Mike Lee has a 99% chance of reelection in Utah.
Politico predicts that the Senate is still a toss-up and the House will likely gain a Republican majority.
- According to Politico, Republicans only need six seats to flip the House and they are likely to do so.
- Politico also reports that Republicans are looking less likely to take the Senate than they were in the spring, but it is still a toss-up.
- Politico also indicates that it’s “likely” that Utah will vote to reelect Lee.
ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight predicts that Democrats are leaning towards taking the Senate and Republicans are leaning towards taking the House.
- FiveThirtyEight predicts that there are 67 in 100 odds that the Democrats take the Senate.
- According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have 70 in 100 odds of taking the House.
- In Utah, FiveThirtyEight gives Lee a 94 in 100 chance of winning reelection.
Why are the midterms so hard to predict this year?
The overturning of Roe v. Wade has changed the landscape of the midterms.
According to The New York Times, “abortion stands at the center of virtually all Democratic electoral hopes this year.” While Republicans taking the House and the Senate seemed likely in the spring, Democrats are campaigning on access to abortion.
Bloomberg added that the GOP’s crop of candidates does not make the situation more favorable for Republicans. Scandals have emerged, like that surrounding Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker, which have contributed to the changing outlook.
The Hill stated that the elections this year are too volatile to predict because of the changing factors.
The answer likely won’t be clear until Election Day.