When Dylan Raiola, the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2024 recruiting cycle, signs his letter of intent with either Nebraska or Georgia — or maybe some surprise school — it will be viewed as a program-changing addition.
Yes, even for the perennial national title contending Bulldogs, but definitely for the once-elite Cornhuskers.
When DJ Lagway, the No. 2-rated quarterback prospect in the 2024 recruiting cycle, signs with the Florida Gators, it will be championed as a job-saving addition for head coach Billy Napier and perhaps — just maybe — the addition needed to vault the Gators back into the nation’s elite.
Go down the list of the top 10 quarterback prospects in 2024, the top blue chip recruits, and when each signs during the early signing period or later, their addition will be viewed as nothing short of a coup for the program they land with.
Land a top quarterback recruit and your future is set. That’s the prevailing wisdom.
The thing is, odds are they won’t be game changers for the programs they sign with out of high school.
That isn’t really how it works anymore. At least not all that often.
Since the 2020 signing class, 21 of the top 40 quarterback recruits — the top 10 in the 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes — have transferred from the schools they signed with out of high school and continued their collegiate careers at at least one other school.
Many have thrived away from the initial choice, others less so, but more than half haven’t finished their career with the school they signed with as prep standouts.
Here’s the list (it is a doozy), based on 247 Sports’ composite ratings.
From the 2020 signing class:
- DJ Uiagalelei, the No. 2-rated QB, signed with Clemson, transferred to Oregon State and is in the transfer portal again.
- Ja’Quinden Jackson, the No. 5-rated QB, signed with Texas, transferred to Utah and then transitioned from QB to RB.
- Hudson Card, the No. 6-rated QB, signed with Texas, then transferred to Purdue.
- Malik Hornsby, the No. 7-rated QB prospect, signed with Arkansas only to transfer to Texas State.
- Harrison Bailey, the No. 8-rated QB, signed with Tennessee then transferred to Louisville.
- Haynes King, the No. 10-rated QB prospect, signed with Texas A&M but ended up at Georgia Tech.
From the 2021 signing class:
- Top-rated QB Quinn Ewers signed with Ohio State, then transferred to Texas. He led the Longhorns to the College Football Playoff this year.
- The No. 2-rated QB — Caleb Williams — famously signed with Oklahoma only to follow Lincoln Riley to USC. He won the Heisman Trophy last season.
- Sam Huard, the No. 3-rated QB prospect, signed with Washington as the next great Husky signal caller before transferring to the FCS ranks with Cal Poly.
- Brock Vandagriff, the No. 4-rated QB in 2021, signed with Georgia, then transferred to Kentucky this December.
- No. 5-rated QB Kyle McCord started every game for Ohio State this season, leading the Buckeyes to an 11-1 record, but he is now in the transfer portal.
- The No. 7-rated QB prospect, Ty Thompson, signed with Oregon and is now in the transfer portal.
- Jake Garcia, the No. 8-rated QB, signed with Miami out of high school before transferring to Missouri.
- No. 10-rated Jaxson Dart started his collegiate career at USC before transferring to Ole Miss.
From the 2022 signing class:
- No. 6-rated QB prospect Walker Howard initially signed with LSU before transferring to Ole Miss.
- No. 8-rated QB Nick Evers — a long time Florida commit — signed with Oklahoma only to transfer to Wisconsin.
- Maalik Murphy, the No. 9-rated QB prospect, signed with Texas and has now entered the transfer portal.
- Brady Allen, the No. 10-rated QB, signed with Purdue but followed head coach Brian Brohm to Louisville.
From the 2023 signing class:
- Dante Moore, the No. 3-rated QB in the class, signed with UCLA and is now in the transfer portal.
- Jaden Rashada, the No. 6-rated QB prospect, initially signed with Florida but asked out of his NLI in order to land at Arizona State.
- No. 7-rated QB Aidan Chiles signed with Oregon State and has now followed head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State.
Some of the aforementioned players transferred in order to follow coaches to new jobs. Others transferred for more playing time or because they didn’t want to contend with other transfers being brought in.
Whatever the reason, more than half of the top 10 quarterback prospects in the past four signing classes have transferred in their careers, a number that will only continue to grow.
But interestingly, of the four teams that are in this year’s College Football Playoff, two are led by quarterbacks who signed with them out of high school.
That would be JJ McCarthy at Michigan — he was the No. 5-rated QB in 2021.
Then there is Jalen Milroe at Alabama, who was rated the 14th-best QB in the 2021 class.
The other two quarterbacks in the CFP are the aforementioned Ewers at Texas and Michael Penix Jr. at Washington, both of whom transferred to their current schools.
Penix Jr. was rated the 40th-best QB prospect coming out of high school in 2018 and signed with Indiana.
Of the teams that were ranked in the top 10 of the CFP committee’s final poll, Florida State was led by a transfer QB (Jordan Travis), as was Oregon (Bo Nix). But Georgia (Carson Beck), Ohio State (McCord), Missouri (Brady Cook) and Penn State (Drew Allar) are all quarterbacked by players signed out of high school.
Signing a blue chip quarterback prospect will never be a bad thing. Usually they bring with them other top recruits, plus national media attention.
Just don’t expect them to stick around or be the signal caller that leads your program to great heights. More than than ever before, quarterbacks — especially the most hyped — are on the move.
