- President Trump's seesaw trade edicts drag down stock markets and business outlook.
- Businesses say the lack of certainty on U.S. trade policy puts investment, hiring plans and growth at risk.
- New tariffs and potential reciprocal responses would place new cost burdens on small businesses.
Earlier this week, the vice chair of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Small Business Council offered some insight into how the uncertainty born of on-again, off-again trade policies is throwing U.S. businesses into turmoil.
“My company will feel an immediate, detrimental impact as a result of these tariffs,” Traci Tapani, co-president of Wyoming Machine, a sheet metal fabricator in Minnesota that relies on aluminum imported from Canada, said in a U.S. Chamber release Monday. “The threats and uncertainty have made it hard to make business decisions, and these kinds of tariffs will make it extremely difficult for small businesses like mine to grow.”
The week in tariffs
That uncertainty has only grown this week amid an ever-changing landscape of trade tariff edicts from President Donald Trump. For those who may have lost track of the series of actions, here’s a recap:
- On Monday, Trump announced that a 30-day pause on 25% tariffs targeting goods from Canada and Mexico, first revealed last month, would end on Tuesday.
- Also on Monday, Trump ordered an additional round of 10% tariffs on goods from China, adding to the 10% levy the U.S. imposed last month.
- On Wednesday, Trump circled back with a temporary carveout on his tariff declarations, announcing a new 30-day pause that applied just to automobile industry imports from Canada and Mexico.
- On Thursday, the president followed up by signing a pair of executive orders for selective moratoriums on new tariffs for Mexican and Canadian goods, set to time out on April 2. The latest orders essentially revert trade rules back to the previous guidance under the 2018 U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement, a trade pact Trump signed during his first term in office.
- On Friday, Trump added yet another tariff twist, indicating he may issue new levies on certain Canadian products, including a 250% tariff on dairy, a rate he said matches a current Canadian tariff on U.S. dairy imports. “Canada has been ripping us off for years on tariffs for lumber and for dairy products,” he said. Earlier on Friday, the president said he was “strongly considering” imposing new sanctions on Russia, including trade tariffs, until a ceasefire agreement is reached with Ukraine.
Trump has said the new levies are aimed at quelling illegal immigration as well as the flow of drugs like fentanyl across U.S. borders.
U.S. companies conducted $2.2 trillion worth of import-export business last year and the countries targeted by the president’s new tariffs represent the biggest U.S. trading partners. In 2024, U.S. import-export transactions with Mexico totaled $840 billion, Canada $762 billion and China $582 billion, per a report from The Associated Press.
The tariff roller-coaster ride drove investment markets down and has, perhaps more significantly, left U.S. business owners in a state of deep unease.
“It’s not just the broad fear of tariffs; it’s not knowing if they’ll be affected, how they’ll be affected or when they’ll be affected,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at the global consulting firm EY Parthenon, told Politico on Thursday. “That’s the gist of the conversations we have with clients across multiple sectors: They don’t know how to best position themselves with regard to the latent uncertainty about tariffs moving forward.”
International trade’s big Utah footprint
Utah business operators find themselves squarely in the fallout zone of the trade policy tumult thanks to the state’s role as an outsize player in U.S. international trade with some $37 billion in annual import/export volume.
According to a report published last year by the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Utah companies produced $17.4 billion worth of international exports in 2023 that generated over $4 billion in earnings and directly supported nearly 72,000 jobs. That volume contributed over $8 billion to the state’s gross domestic product and $16.7 billion to the state’s gross output. The state exported goods to 200 countries and imported goods from 151 countries.
While the United Kingdom is, by far, Utah’s biggest export partner, the next three biggest are those targeted by the Trump tariffs — Canada, China and Mexico. The U.K. received $7.2 billion worth of Utah goods in 2023 or 41.2% of total exports. Approximately $6.8 billion of the exports to the U.K. stem from unwrought gold, much of it sourced from Rio Tinto Kennecott operations in the state. Canada received $1.7 billion in Utah goods in 2023, Mexico $1.3 billion and China $1.2 billion, according to the Gardner report.
Mexico, Canada and China are also Utah’s biggest import origin countries, sending Utah $4.8 billion, $3.1 billion and $2.7 billion worth of goods, respectively, in 2023.
While international trade directly supports 72,000 jobs in Utah, World Trade Center Utah notes it provides indirect support for some 430,000 Beehive State workers, or about 1 in 4 of all jobs in the state.
Trade policy is hometown policy
In a Deseret News interview, Salt Lake Chamber President/CEO Derek Miller noted 85% of Utah businesses fall into the small-to-midsize category and are among the most vulnerable when it comes to tariff impacts.
“Many of these small businesses are building things and exporting them to the world,” Miller said. “Our businesses rely on these international markets almost more than any other state due to our small population.”
Miller said Utah businesses dependent on international trade are facing a double-whammy amid the brewing trade war. The prospect of increased prices for imported supplies and potential reciprocal trade levies could necessitate higher prices for exported products.
“These businesses can’t have success if they only sell to local or U.S. customers,” Miller said. “We have to have access to international markets and Utah businesses have done that, and done it very well.”
Miller added that in addition to the burden of added costs on both sides of the trade equation, the seesaw tariff declarations are creating a climate of concern in the Utah business community.
“When you think about the two things businesses need to thrive, one is stability and the other is certainty,” Miller said. “And what we’re seeing right now is neither of those things.”
Miller said the uncertainty could force Utah business owners to press pause on important decision-making and potentially push investment activity to the sidelines.
“Capital is a coward, as they say,” Miller said. “It isn’t going to go where it isn’t wanted.
“With all this back-and-forth we’re sending a message to capital investment that ‘you’re not welcome right now.‘ I’m sure that’s not intentional but that’s the message capital is going to get.”
Miller noted that the realm of international trade is one that has long been rife with imbalances but said he believes a more measured approach to rectifying issues would have better outcomes for local and national business ecosystems.
“I think we’re better served in taking a very careful approach in correcting these issues rather than the sledgehammer approach that is leading to unexpected collateral damage,” Miller said.