- A new poll gauges Utahns' feelings about personal finances and the state and U.S. economies.
- Economic sentiment among Utah residents is trending down but less than national average.
- A Utah economist says recession is a possibility but the state is well-positioned if that happens.
Just weeks ahead of the international trade tumult that dragged down U.S. investment markets and sparked new recession worries, Utahns were feeling fairly optimistic about their household finances and the direction of their state’s economy.
But not so much when it comes to where they believe the overall U.S. economy is headed.
And the new data, gathered in a statewide Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey conducted Feb. 18-25, comes amid other state and national readings that show consumer sentiment is on the decline.
Phil Dean, chief economist at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, told the Deseret News that the poll results reflect a running trend among Utahns who typically register higher confidence in their local economy than nationally. He said he believes it’s a view that is well-founded, even as worries continue to rise about a potential looming recession.
“There’s definitely a risk of recession out there right now,” said Dean, who co-chairs the Utah Economic Council. “I don’t think there’s a guarantee but definitely a risk with all of the different challenges emerging.
“But we continue to trend better than the U.S. in sentiment and I think there’s good reason for that given our economic performance. We’re continuing to do well as a state.”
A plurality of Utahns surveyed, 41%, say their personal financial situation is currently steady while 31% report things are getting worse on the personal financial front and 26% say it’s improving.
There was only a small partisan difference among those who said their finances were the same, with that group made up of 44% Republicans and 39% Democrats. A similar partisan divide was present among respondents who said their finances were improving, 31% Republican versus 26% Democrats.
For those who reported their financial situations were worsening, the political divide widened with 24% of Republicans in that camp along with 35% Democrats.
Right track or wrong track?
The drumbeat of political affiliation sounded a bit louder, however, when it came to poll Utahns' views on the current economic tides for the state and the nation.
When asked, “In general, do you think Utah’s economy is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track?”, 51% of respondents said the state was on the right track, 32% said wrong track and 17% weren’t sure or said they didn’t know.
Utah Republicans and Democrats were deeply divided on the right track view, with 67% of the group identifying with the GOP and 34% with the Democratic Party. Among those who said Utah was on the wrong track, 19% were Republicans and 44% Democrats.
Views of Utah’s economic path were also markedly different among income groups with 67% of those who earn over $100,000 per year deeming the state’s economy on the right track with only 30% of those earning under $50,000 sharing the same feeling.
When asked the same right track/wrong track questions about the American economy, nearly half of respondents, 47%, said the country’s economy was off course, 39% believe it’s on the right track and 15% weren’t sure or didn’t know.
Partisan disparities were profound on national economic views as well, with those who say the right track made up of 57% Republicans and 19% Democrats. Conversely, 30% Republicans and 71% Democrats say the economy is on the wrong track.
The latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll was conducted by HarrisX Interactive of 805 registered Utah voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Sentiment breaking toward bleaker
Earlier this week, another measure of Utahns' collective economic outlook was released by the Salt Lake Chamber in partnership with the Gardner Policy Institute.
Data from the February 2025 Roadmap to Prosperity Dashboard reveals that Utah consumer sentiment fell 3.5% in January, while U.S. sentiment declined at a steeper 9.8% rate. While economic uncertainty took a toll on consumers in January, with U.S. sentiment falling to its lowest level since November 2023, Utah sentiment also trended downward, but remains higher than the average 2024 sentiment (81.1) at 88.1, according to the new report.
“Economic indicators appear mixed in the early months of 2025, underscoring the uncertainty being felt about the state of the economy,” said Natalie Gochnour, director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, in a statement. “While Utah’s economy continues to be top tier among states, declining consumer sentiment, slowed job growth and concerns over federal trade policies are tempering expectations for the near future.”
The latest national reading from the University of Michigan’s closely watched Surveys of Consumers released Friday, finds U.S. consumer sentiment declined even further in the first part of March, down 11% from February.
“Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences,” wrote Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu in Friday’s report. “Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February.”
Utah still outperforming the nation
Dean said Utah’s economy was still outpacing most of the country but was showing some signs of cooling down.
Dean said rising economic uncertainty was being driven, in part, by international trade issues and that element of the current economic environment puts business operators and consumers on shaky ground when it comes to planning for their financial futures.
“If you have certainty, you feel confident, one way or another, knowing what to do. You have firm guideposts showing you direction,” Dean said. “It just amazes me how inventive, how solution-oriented people are when they know what the parameters are. But when those are up in the air, it’s hard to determine a clear direction forward.”
Dean said that Utah continues to run on strong economic momentum but noted some indicators reflect a cycle of moderation could be in the offing. He noted that while the state is outperforming most areas of the country, the Utah economy is not immune to the impacts of national economic dynamics.
“While our state economy is strong, we’re not an island,” Dean said. “We’re deeply connected to the rest of the country and national policy issues that disrupt the overall economy impact us as well.”