- President Trump announced on social media Monday that talks with Iran are underway.
- Investment markets rose sharply following the news and crude oil prices declined.
- Some Iranian officials are discounting the status of peace negotiations.
Stocks rallied and crude oil prices dipped after President Donald Trump took to social media early Monday to announce positive momentum in talks with Iran and a five-day halt to military strikes as the U.S. war with the Middle East country enters its fourth week.
Trump’s statements follow threats Saturday to target Iranian energy facilities if the country failed to take steps to re-open traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical segment of the oceanic shipping pathway that connects Persian Gulf countries with the world.
“I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday. “BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.”
Investment markets have been on the decline since the U.S. launched military action in Iran late last month, nearing overall average declines of 10% before news of peace talks emerged sending stock values up sharply.
As of mid-morning, the Dow Jones Industrial average was up over 1,100 points, about 2.4%, the S&P 500 gained 2.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.4%. International crude oil benchmark Brent was down 12% to $98 a barrel, per CNBC.
“Equity markets finally found an off-ramp to the dramatic uncertainty and significantly oversold conditions due to the Iranian conflict,” wrote Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial and manager of the Essential 40 Stock ETF. “If this proves to be a foundation for peace in the Middle East, equities could get back to all-time highs.”
Later Monday, Trump told reporters that his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had been negotiating with Iran before the war, had discussions with a top Iranian official into the evening on Sunday and would continue on Monday, per a report from Reuters.
“We have had very, very strong talks,” Trump said. “We’ll see where they lead. We have major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement.”
“All I’m saying is, we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal,” Trump said before departing Florida for Memphis.
According to the report, Trump declined to say who the United States was speaking with in Iran but said it was not Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump said Iran “had some leaders left.”
Other reports are offering a somewhat different accounting of the status of U.S.-Iran talks.
According to The Hill, a senior Iranian security official on Monday said Tehran is not engaged in talks adding that Trump “backed down” from further attacks on energy infrastructure due to pressure from the markets and allies.
“Trump backed down from attacking critical infrastructure as Iran’s military threats became credible. Financial market pressure and the threat of bonds within the U.S. and the West have increased, and this has been another important factor in this retreat,” the senior official told Iran’s Fars News Agency in translated remarks.
“There has not been and is not any negotiation underway, and with this type of psychological warfare, neither will the Strait of Hormuz return to its pre-war conditions, nor will there be peace in the energy markets,” the official added, per the report from The Hill.
Pain at the pump
The average price for a gallon of regular across Utah was $3.94 on Monday, up 34 cents from a week ago and nearly $1.20 per gallon more than the same time last month, according to AAA data.
In a Monday blog post, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said seasonal factors, along with disruptions caused by the Iran war, were combining to push up consumer gas prices.
“Gas prices continued to rise nationwide over the last week as seasonal factors, combined with ongoing supply concerns tied to the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, pushed both gasoline and diesel prices sharply higher,” De Haan wrote.
Gas prices typically trend upward in March and April as fuel refineries switch winter formulas to more expensive summer blends. Warmer temperatures also drive up demand and prices as spring weather conditions begin.