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New report reveals the real chances of a breakthrough COVID-19 infection

How Utah data helped find the true possibility of fully vaccinated people getting COVID-19

People wait in line for a COVID-19 test in Utah State Fairpark in Salt Lake City.
People wait in line for a COVID-19 test at the Utah State Fairpark in Salt Lake City on Monday, Aug. 16, 2021.
Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

What are the chances you’ll get COVID-19 if you’re fully vaccinated? Well, we might have an answer.

What are the chances you’ll get COVID-19 if you’re fully vaccinated?

The chances of fully vaccinated people getting infected by the novel coronavirus are about 1 in 5,000, according to The New York Times.

  • The data comes after new data showed how few times the average vaccinated American contracted COVID-19.

In most cases, about one in 5,000 fully vaccinated people contract COVID-19 per day. That number might be even lower for those who take precautions or live in a community where vaccination rates are high, The New York Times reports.

  • That number is based on data from Utah and Virginia, as well as King County in Washington state, which includes Seattle.

Can you get COVID-19 if people around you are vaccinated?

But chances might be lower in places where there are fewer cases, like the Northeast, Chicago and Los Angeles. In those cities, chances might be less than 1 in 10,000.

  • “Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1%,” according to The New York Times.

What are the chances you’ll be hospitalized from COVID if you’re fully vaccinated?

And the report suggests 1 in every 1 million vaccinated people get hospitalized because of COVID-19.

Dr. Ashish Jha, of Brown University, responded to the report on Twitter, saying he thinks the chances are, in fact, lower in certain areas.

  • “I think it's closer to 1 in 10,000,” he said on Twitter. “And if you live in a lower infection state like MA or RI, its probably closer to 1 in 20,000.”

These numbers come as COVID-19 daily cases exceeded 40 million total cases, with 4 million coming within the last week, according to CNN. The recent surge has happened because of the delta variant, which has been spreading to mostly unvaccinated people.