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Will Disney release ‘Mulan’ or ‘Black Widow’ in 2020? Here’s what one analyst thinks

A new analyst note suggests Disney won’t release any new movies yet

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Crystal Liu, born Liu Yifei, stars in Disney’s live-action “Mulan.”

Crystal Liu, born Liu Yifei, stars in Disney’s live-action “Mulan.”

Walt Disney Studios

An analyst has suggested that Disney might not release any new movies in theaters this year amid the coronavirus pandemic.

What’s going on?

  • Per Deadline, Cowen analyst Doug Kreutz said in a new note this week that Disney will unlikely release new films for the year. He said he doesn’t expect Disney — or any other major movie studios — to debut new films in 2020. He expects a modest slate for 2021.
  • Domestic movie theaters may be closed until 2021, he suggested. Studios won’t want to chance their new movies on empty theaters, according to Deadline.
  • Reopening dates continue to change. AMC Entertainment plans to reopen on July 30. Cinemark plans to reopen on July 24.
  • Disney films are still on the docket to open in 2020. “Mulan” has a Aug. 21 release date. “Black Widow” is scheduled to be released on Nov. 6 too.

And yet, studios might not wait

We are less certain that studios will wait for the perfect date to release their films — as that perfect date may never arrive. In other words, waiting for every major market to have optimal reopening rules for movie theaters (especially around capacity limits), may end up pushing most, if not all, titles into 2021. And if studios are concerned around the health of their exhibitor partners, they may not choose to wait much longer.

  • Wold said experts believe the box office will see a 75% drop in 2020’s third quarter and 50% drop in the fourth quarter, according to The Hollywood Reporter.And 2021 will see a 20% decline for the year with rebounds in the fall and winter months.