Oil tankers haven’t been able to sail through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Iran war, leading to a global surge in crude oil prices. Everyday households have felt the impacts financially as energy prices have climbed and now airlines are feeling the impacts as jet fuel supplies decrease.
Last week, global jet fuel prices rose 105.1% from a year ago. In North America, prices surged 82.6% — the smallest increase compared to other areas, according to The Associated Press. Europe and Asia have been hit hardest due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude.
“Jet fuel is the most immediate problem. Australia is the most immediate problem,” oil analyst Paul Sankey told CNBC.
Jet fuel shortages are straining global economies. While some countries maintain 90-day emergency stocks, those reserves are thinning. Countries with lower initial supplies, like Australia — which held only about 34 days of fuel — face even greater shortages, Sankey said. He noted that the United States is the “least affected” of all major economies.
Some countries in Asia have already been rationing fuel and restricting exports, George Shaw, an analyst at Kpler, told NPR.
Impact on airlines and travel
Data from the International Air Transport Association Jet Fuel Price Index shows global jet fuel prices jumped from nearly $100 a barrel in late 2025 to more than $200 a barrel before dropping slightly this month, according to Fox Business.
Rising costs have impacted airfares as carriers seek to mitigate expenses. Beyond ticket price hikes, some airlines are increasing fees for checked luggage to compensate for the increased fuel prices. U.S. airlines like Delta, Alaska, JetBlue, Southwest and United have all hiked checked bag fees for passengers, according to The Independent.
Most U.S. airlines previously used fuel hedging — a financial strategy to lock in fuel prices. While the practice protected carriers during initial price spikes, it became a liability when prices fell. Since then, many U.S. airlines have abandoned the practice, noting it wasn’t worth the financial strain. This has left them exposed to massive price increases with no cushion, according to NPR.
In a recent earnings call with investors, Delta Air Lines estimated the crisis would cost the company an additional $2 billion this quarter, according to NPR. Delta, which owns its own refinery, remains in a relatively better position than its competitors.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told The Associated Press last week that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel supplies remaining. He warned of an increase in canceled flights if supplies continue to be cut off by the war and called the situation “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
Summer travel outlook
For those with summer travel plans, the outlook is expensive. Clint Henderson, spokesperson for The Points Guy, told Fox Business that average domestic airfares for the summer are up 10% to 15%, while international trips to Europe have jumped 20%.
“Still, my advice remains the same — book all your trips now and then hope for a return to stability in the oil markets,” Henderson continued. “If the price of your trip drops, you can get a trip credit for the difference (as long as you didn’t book basic economy).”
Henderson suggested travelers book trips with points and miles to offset the high cash prices. “Better safe than sorry,” he said. “With most points and miles programs, at least in the U.S., you can cancel and get your points back.”
He also cautioned travelers to watch for airlines to continue to cut routes in an effort to save on fuel — especially if oil prices stay high, as some airlines have already begun to decrease their routes.
The fuel recovery timeline
Even if operations through the Strait of Hormuz reopened Wednesday, it would take weeks for oil prices to drop, according to NPR. Middle Eastern refineries, which were forced to shut down when shipping was cut off, would require significant time to return to normal production.
Logistics create another hurdle. According to Argus, the last jet fuel shipment to pass through the strait arrived in Europe recently; it was loaded Feb. 28 and took weeks to reach its destination. With no current deliveries en route, any new tanker leaving tomorrow would still take weeks to arrive.
“The market’s effectively seized up,” Shaw told NPR. “It will take a long time for it to get back to a semblance of normality, even in the most optimistic scenario.”