Turmoil in the Mideast and the nation’s economy are intensifying fissures between parties and within them. We are exploring what this means for Utah politics.
Recent national polls indicate that the majority of Americans do not support the war in Iran. Almost two-thirds state that President Donald Trump has not clearly articulated the reasons for the military excursion. Furthermore, his approval rating continues to drop. With state party conventions less than two weeks away, will this issue play a role in determining nominees?
Cowley: Of all Trump’s bold actions, this is by far the most unpopular. Fractures are growing among MAGA supporters because of Trump’s broken promise to end “forever wars” and his starting a new one. Former followers and long-time detractors within the GOP point to the lack of clearly stated objectives. (Some are alleging the effort is a proxy war for Israel). All this runs afoul of the MAGA mantra “America First”. In Utah, this divide will be felt most acutely at the Republican State Convention. Congressional candidates will offer a broad array of positions on Iran. Some will say it is necessary to keep Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, while others express concerns about inflation and gas prices back home.
Nothing brings Democrats together more than their shared hatred of Trump. Utah’s Democratic candidates will compete to see who can decry Trump’s actions louder.
Pignanelli: “When Trump talks to journalists, he does message testing. He tries out this explanation for the war, or that explanation for the war.” — Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
Please have sympathy for the mainstream voter. Not since the 19th century has politics been this confusing. While divisions were percolating for years, the war in Iran turbocharged the widening of interparty fractures.
MAGA and traditional Republicans are increasingly frustrated with each other. For almost 50 years, conservatives have dreamed of stopping the terror sponsored by Iran. Now their biggest opponents carry the same party level.
A decade ago, support for Israel was not an issue for Democrats. Today, this acrimonious matter threatens serious damage. Another controversy looms with navigating affordability. Traditional solutions will help oil companies sell their products, which is anathema to the environmentalists who play significant roles in the national and state parties. Furthermore, high gas prices are a strong incentive to use renewable fuels. Plans to resolve inflation could be landmines for Democratic candidates.
Several congressional candidates did not submit the necessary signatures to be automatically placed on the primary ballot, while others are awaiting verification. This includes incumbent Congresswoman Celeste Maloy, Salt Lake City Councilwoman Eva Lopez, and perennial candidate Phil Lyman. Those who fall short now depend on a strong showing at the convention. How will this affect conventions?
Cowley: Delegates don’t look kindly on candidates who attempt to circumvent the party purity test, also known as the convention. Candidates who try to gather signatures, yet fall short, will now be at the mercy of delegates, putting the future of their campaigns in jeopardy.
Over the years, gathering signatures has grown in utilization as a sort of insurance policy for candidates, rather than putting all of their eggs in the convention basket. However, it automatically forfeits support from diehard delegates. Other candidates roll the dice by exclusively running the convention gauntlet, branding them as delegate darlings and saving them serious campaign coin. Without fail, conventions provide political onlookers with drama and upsets. The dynamic of candidates missing the mark on signatures, putting their fate in the hands of delegates, will add to the intrigue.
Ben McAdams was the first to qualify for the ballot with signatures so his spot on the primary ballot has already been secured. He leads in both fundraising and support from likely primary voters. It will say a lot about the convention/delegate process if radical delegates, who skew farther left than average primary voters, reject this frontrunner.
Pignanelli: Democrat candidates who may not have enough signatures (or barely crossed the threshold) will push for better convention results. As with Republicans, delegates tend to be on the political extreme, and the speeches will definitely cater to them.
Because all major party conventions are emotional festivals, results are not always predictable. Expect surprises from both sides on that Saturday evening.
Both polling and historical analysis suggest Democrats will retake the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. Yet the national party is behind on fundraising goals, indicating a lack of enthusiasm. How does an expected Democratic victory in November impact deliberations in these conventions?
Cowley: Republican congressional candidates will campaign on their ability to fight the liberal agenda. Democratic congressional candidates will profess their ability to be effective as a freshman and push back against Trump’s perceived overreach.
Democrats’ lack of a unified plan continues to plague their ability to offer a meaningful alternative to Trump. Any anticipated gains by Democrats this November are not attributable to their success but to the failures of Republicans.
Pignanelli: Because of high expectations, Democratic candidates for federal office will be expected to push against the president. This includes promises for hearings, investigations, and even impeachment. This may satisfy the base, but the average American wants to hear about the economy and public safety.