Monday was the unofficial end of summer and the official start of the election season. Americans and Utahns will be wooed and bombarded in the next 52 days by candidates, special interest groups and super PACs. Because this is an unusual midterm election, we are offering a primer on what readers should watch for.
What are the expected trends?
An old adage says history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. This election season is filled with déjà vu, proving the statement often attributed to Mark Twain.
In the fall of 2022, President Joseph Biden was underwater in approval ratings. Inflation and gas prices were also high while a war raged in Ukraine. In that midterm election, Republicans recaptured the House by a slight majority while Democrats retained control of the Senate. Conventional wisdom is projecting a mirror image of these results in November.
Gas prices, inflation and general dissatisfaction with the economy will dominate campaigns with a few key differences.
What impact will data centers and artificial intelligence advocates have on national and local elections?
Polling across the country, and in Utah, reveals suspicion among voters across the political spectrum toward data centers, mass surveillance and sentient AI. Many politicians are pivoting and responding to these growing concerns.
This dynamic could change quickly. Building data centers promises many high-wage construction jobs. Thus, construction unions are engaging across the country, backing candidates, regardless of party affiliation, who support data centers. Furthermore, many high-tech organizations are throwing large sums of money at races to keep them from becoming a political punching bag.
Will there be a blue wave across the country? Will it make any splashes in Utah?
All the major national predictors predict a blue wave with Democrats recapturing the House and splitting the Senate evenly with the Republicans. (Another rhyme with 2022).
But unknown factors are in play. Exploiting the rise of Socialist Democrats could help Republicans hold seats. Although some experts question the advantages, recent redistricting in red states could work as intended. Congress will likely be almost evenly divided starting in January. Members willing to split with their party become significant players in upcoming policy deliberations. (We see you, John Curtis.)
Utah congressional results are foregone conclusions. But a blue wave in the First Congressional District could impact legislative races in swing districts. Also, a broad attack on Socialist Democrats carried on Utah airwaves serves as a wall against any tsunami.
Will the Department of Justice interfere with Utah’s mail ballots?
Weber County Clerk Ricky Hatch recently opined that existing law will prevent any judicial interference this late in the election season. Hatch, who is well respected for ethical and competent performance, is a reassuring voice.
The drama may continue in the standoff between Trump and Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson. Trump is demanding Henderson turn over Utahns’ voter information or suffer the wrath of the Justice Department.
Two constitutional amendments are before voters. What are they and what do they do?
Amendment A raises the threshold for passing citizen initiatives — that would increase taxes — to 60% of voters. Had this existed in 2018, Medicaid expansion would not have passed. Because of the Supreme Court ruling, restricting the legislature from making changes to initiatives, Utahns can expect an influx of outside groups trying to get on the ballot. Should this pass, it will make these efforts more challenging.
In 2024, two proposed ballot amendments were deemed invalid because the Legislature overlooked the constitutional requirement to publish notice in newspapers. Amendment B opts for publication on the Utah Public Notice Website and the state legislative website.
What is the “insider baseball” that political operatives are watching?
Campaigns are planning to send mail-in ballots in mid-October. Furthermore, there is no straight-ticket voting. Both measures allow for more fluidity by voters.
What are the legislative races to watch?
Utah Forward Party’s Emily Buss won in a 2025 state senate special election. The Democratic candidate has withdrawn, leaving party loyalists to back Buss to beat newcomer Republican Brooks Benson. This tactic has been tried and failed in Utah.
Republican Rep. Matt McPherson is defending his seat in a swing district against Democratic challenger Michael Finch. Neither has raised nor spent significant money, so onlookers are waiting to see if dollars start pouring in or if this is a battle of grassroots campaigns.
Rep. Jim Dunnigan consistently fends off tough challengers from the left to protect his swing House seat. In an unexpected turn, Democrats replaced his previous opponent, who withdrew earlier this year, with Blake Townsend. This fourth-quarter sub made this easy layup race for Republicans a bit more challenging.
All of the above races will be impacted by Democrats’ enthusiasm and resources surrounding Ben McAdams’ fortuitous candidacy for Congress.
In 2024, Republican Rep. Jill Koford ousted Democrat Rep. Rosemary Lesser. Koford is now running for the Senate in a safe Republican district, creating an interesting opportunity for Lesser against Jim Alvey.
The October surprise
No American election is complete without some bombshell in the early fall. Heaven only knows what happens soon (peace in Iran or Ukraine, attack from AI bots, etc.). Enjoy the ride.