Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in his Manhattan business fraud trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a felony.
On Thursday, the judge denied Trump’s request for appeal and set a sentencing hearing for July 11 — just four days before the Republican National Convention, when Trump is expected to be named the GOP’s nominee for president.
It is unclear what role the historic verdict will play in deciding the 2024 election, in which Trump is expected to face President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. It is possible that Trump will be unable to vote in that election, as Florida state law — where Trump resides — limits convicted felons’ abilities to participate in elections. However, there is no restriction in the U.S. Constitution on a convicted felon running for president.
Whether voters are influenced by Trump’s conviction is another matter. Polling in recent months suggests that some Trump-friendly voters, including independent voters, may be dissuaded by a conviction.
In March, a plurality — 44% — of respondents to a Politico/Ipsos poll said a guilty verdict would not have any impact in their decision this November. Around one-third (33%) said a conviction would make them less likely to support him.
By May, in a separate poll conducted by NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist College, the number of voters who said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to support Trump was down to 17%.
The key respondents in these polls are Trump supporters and undecided voters. With Trump leading Biden slightly in national polls, any movement from these groups could tip the scales — Trump voters backing off, or undecided voters deciding not to support him.
Early polling suggested that both are possible. In April, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that one-fifth of likely Trump voters would be swayed by 16% of Trump’s supporters would reconsider their support, and 4% would drop him altogether. A separate April poll, by CNN and SSRS, found that 24% of Trump supporters might reconsider their support. And in the aforementioned Politico/Ipsos poll, more than a third of voters would make them less likely to support Trump.
All of these polls are snapshots in time. It is important to remember that prior to the verdict, most Americans said they weren’t paying much attention to the trial. The best polling on the matter will be the next polling — now that a verdict has been reached and voters do not have to speculate whether Trump will or won’t be convicted.