An earlier version of this article was published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here. To submit a question to next week’s Friday Mailbag, email onthetrail@deseretnews.com.
Hello, friends. Some monumental news: Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in his Manhattan business fraud trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a felony. I wrote about the effect on Trump’s electability here.
3 things to know
- Trump is guilty. The case, brought on by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Braggs, accused Trump of falsifying business records, allegedly used to pay off adult film actress Stormy Daniels after an affair. Read more here.
- President Joe Biden has said a major ground operation in Rafah would constitute his “red line” — meaning the U.S. would cut off support to Israel. Now, after an airstrike and as Israeli tanks push into Rafah, the White House says Israel has yet to cross the line. Read more here.
- Party of the working class? A new Gallup survey finds that a larger share of Republicans consider themselves to be part of the “working class” than of Democrats. Read more here.
The Big Idea
Mexico’s first female president
This Sunday, millions of Mexicans will bring an end to a chaotic election cycle. It was the most violent campaign in Mexico’s history. Since Sept. 23 of last year, either 32 or 34 candidates for office have been murdered. Another dozen have been kidnapped. Hundreds of campaign officials have been the subjects of violence.
Much of the press coverage in Mexico, two days ahead of Election Day, focuses on the violence, largely instigated by cartels. (Just on Wednesday, a mayoral candidate in Guerrero was shot at point-blank range at a rally, which dominated headlines across the country.) Much of the International press, though, is focused on another aspect of the elections: Mexico will likely elect its first female president.
If polls are any indication, Claudia Sheinbaum — the former head of government of Mexico City, akin to a state governor — will likely be the winner. Polls consistently show her with a comfortable lead. The leading opposition candidate is a woman, too: Xóchitl Gálvez, the former mayor of Miguel Hidalgo, a borough near the capitol.
If either woman wins, as is predicted, they would become the first female elected head of state in North American history. (Canada’s Kim Campbell served as prime minister for four months, but she was appointed following a resignation.)
Americans should be paying attention. The election will likely impact the U.S. in significant ways:
Immigration. The Biden administration has made cooperation with Mexico a central part of its immigration policy. U.S. officials, including Biden, have made frequent trips to Mexico City to discuss migration. When the U.S. resumed deportations via flights to central Mexico, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cooperated, and even launched a busing program of his own. When the Biden administration toyed with asylum policy and explored its authority to shut down the border entirely, it relied heavily on Mexico’s approval — which would bear the brunt of stalled border crossings. However, Obrador “hugs, not bullets” approach to cartels has dismayed the U.S.’ efforts to limit the flow of fentanyl.
The Biden administration has targeted “root causes” to address migration through Mexico, largely from Central American countries. Sheinbaum has vowed to help. But migration from Mexico is another issue entirely, as demographic decline has put Mexico on the verge of its own labor shortage. “Some day pretty soon Mexico will not have the capacity to provide labor for this nation,” former Mexico President Vicente Fox said in Salt Lake City last week. “That is the big change that’s coming. Mexico will not have the capacity to export labor.”
Trade. Mexico is now the U.S.’ No. 1 trade partner after a record-setting 2023. The Trump administration helped revamp the North America Free Trade Agreement in 2020, replacing it with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. Mexico could benefit as Biden administration heightens tariffs against China, including on electric vehicles. Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist, has called on Mexico to become an International leader in mining and energy production, thanks in part to the country’s significant lithium deposits. A number of auto companies recognize the upside — Ford, Jetour, BMW, General Motors, and Tesla “are building or re-purposing factories to produce EVs in Mexico,” Forbes reports. If Sheinbaum wins, Mexico will likely attempt to cement itself as a world leader in natural energy production and EV manufacturing — in line with the Biden administration’s environmental priorities.
Democracy. Obrador guided Mexico through a turbulent chapter. His allies will remember him for his systemic welfare reforms; his critics, for widespread instability. One of his biggest failures, his opponents say, was his disregard for the country’s democratic institutions. Obrador proposed sweeping changes to weaken the National Electoral Institute, the government agency that oversees and conducts elections. (I’ve written about these proposals here.) Most of the proposed changes were eventually scrapped, but the incident demonstrated how close a Mexican head of state could steer the country to democracy’s edge.
Weekend reads
A new poll of young voters — ages 18 to 30 — is, uh, depressing. “Young voters do not look at our politics and see any good guys,” the lead pollster said. “They see a dying empire led by bad people.” Poll finds young voters despairing over U.S. politics (Shelby Talcott, Semafor)
Democrats are united behind Biden — in public, at least. This report suggests that some high-profile Dems are showing “palpable trepidation” about Biden’s sulking polls and Trump’s popularity: “This isn’t, ‘Oh my G--, Mitt Romney might become president,’” one Democratic operative said. “It’s ‘Oh my G--, the democracy might end.’” Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden (Christopher Cadelago, Sally Goldenberg and Elena Schneider, Politico)
The most influential, yet most invisible, force in Washington? Lobbying firms. The nation’s capital is filling with well-connected individuals, including ex-officeholders, making bank off of their friendships. “Revolving-door practices — leaving government jobs and parlaying insider connections into lucrative lobbying work — (are) part of the system.” The Real ‘Deep State’ (Franklin Foer, The Atlantic)
One last thing: I joined Phoenix’s NPR affiliate to talk about Latter-day Saints in Arizona and how they might affect the 2024 race there. Take a listen.
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.