An earlier version of this article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Friday mornings here.
In last week’s newsletter, I wrote about the faith groups pushing back against President Donald Trump’s immigration plans. This week, we’ll look at what U.S. voters think.
A new Deseret News/HarrisX poll suggests that Americans have mixed opinions on Trump’s first month in office. Voters generally see immigration as a key issue — only price increases and inflation ranked higher, when asked which are the “most important issues facing the country” — but they differ on Trump’s plans to deal with it.
On deportations: When asked if they support Trump’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes, a wide majority of U.S. voters are in favor. Overall, 54% say they strongly support the plan, and 24% somewhat support it — marking 79% in favor (rounded to the nearest whole number). Across the board, nearly all demographic groups are amenable: self-described independents (78%), Hispanics (76%), liberals (74%) Kamala Harris voters (72%) and Democrats (69%) all say they support the plan.
Approval starts to fade when voters are asked if they support deporting all undocumented immigrants — beyond just those who have committed crimes. The total share of voters who say they support this plan drops by over 20 percentage points, to 56%. For independents, only 49% are in favor; among Democrats and Harris voters, just 35%. Only one-third of Hispanics are in favor. (Among Hispanic women, that drops to 28%.)
To date, Trump’s deportation efforts have more closely reflected the second question than the first. While Trump and his allies promised they would first prioritize deporting “public safety threats,” undocumented immigrants with no history of violent crime have been early victims. At Guantanamo Bay, where the Trump administration said it would house “the worst of the worst,” Venezuelan individuals with no record beyond crossing the border illegally have been held in prison, The Washington Post reported. When the Miami Herald reviewed cases of migrants sent to Gitmo, they found several with no previous record, and others with only minor offenses — like biking on the wrong side of the road. Migrant Insider has spoken to deportees’ families and chronicled the reasons for their extradition to Gitmo, like a Jordan tattoo.
In a semantic shift post-election, the Trump administration has begun to refer to all undocumented immigrants as “criminals.” The law is more nuanced than this, as my colleague Jacob Hess details here, and most categories of unauthorized individuals in the U.S. aren’t technically criminal, including those who overstayed a visa or are awaiting an asylum claim to be processed.
That is not how the White House views it, though. When asked how many migrants arrested during Trump’s first week in office were criminals, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “All of them, because they illegally broke our nation’s laws.”
She continued: “I know the last administration didn’t see it that way, so it’s a big culture shift in our nation to view someone who breaks our immigration laws as a criminal, but that’s exactly what they are.”
On raids: There is some daylight between Trump and the American people on where ICE should conduct immigration raids, too. I’ve written about the Trump administration’s policy change which allows immigration raids at churches. It’s a deviation from three decades of policy precedent, which discouraged immigration arrests at or near “sensitive locations” like schools, hospitals or places of worship.
Overall, U.S. voters find the new policy distasteful. A slight majority of voters say they oppose allowing ICE to enter places of worship (55%), schools (53%) and hospitals (51%) “in order to find and deport undocumented immigrants.”
Interestingly, opposition to ICE entering churches was strongest among self-described atheists and agnostics (69%), followed by non-evangelical Protestants (61%), Roman Catholics (52%) and other Christians (55%). Evangelicals were the only religious group polled that showed majority support (56%) for the policy.
Opponents of the policy earned a small victory this week: On Monday, a federal judge blocked immigration enforcement at or near worship spaces of several Quaker, Sikh and Baptist congregations, after the groups sued citing religious liberty concerns.
“Plaintiffs have provided evidence that the willingness of their congregants to attend worship and participate in ministry services is presently being chilled, and that, particularly at CBF and the Sikh Temple, attendance at such activities has already declined,” the judge said.
3 things to know
- From the White House: Trump wants to offer green cards for $5 million. ... Elon Musk shows up at first Cabinet meeting. ... White House spurns WHCA, says it will handpick who covers the president. ... Trump and Macron call for peace in Ukraine — but differ on how to get there.
- From the Hill: House GOP advanced budget resolution. ... debate on entitlements up next. ... lawmakers flooded at town halls with DOGE concerns. ... Curtis calls for “compassion” as government cuts continue.
- From the courts: SCOTUS allows Trump to freeze USAID payments. ... next hearing for the Trump-AP duel set for late March. ... federal judge pauses immigration raids in some churches.
Weekend reads
What’s it like to be Mike Pence right now? Once the second-in-line, now an exile in his own party, watching his former boss retake the reins. Pence has been as vocal as ever in recent weeks — on Ukraine and RFK Jr. especially — but is Trump listening? Pence thinks so: “While we don’t talk the way we used to, I have every reason to believe he still listens to me,” Pence said. In Trump’s Washington, Mike Pence Is Odd Man Out (The Dispatch)
The Democrat “Resistance” has a new face: Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut. He seems to be an early frontrunner for the party’s 2028 presidential nomination, though he brushes off speculation: “Right now, there is a distinct possibility that we do not have a free and fair election in 2028, and all of our work is to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he said. Chris Murphy Emerges as a Clear Voice for Democrats Countering Trump (The New York Times)
“Gulf of America” started as something of a prank — a “liberal joke turned conservative meme.” Now, it represents the tenor of Trump’s first month in office. A fascinating behind-the-scenes look: The inside story of how President Trump came to name the ‘Gulf of America’ (The Washington Post)
BONUS: In Mexico City, U.S. deportees start a new life (Deseret)