Much has been written in the U.S., in recent years, scrutinizing crime among migrants. Leading up to last year’s election and since, frequent mention has been made of any violent incidents perpetrated by people in the country without authorization — including at this spring’s L.A. protests.
A majority of Americans (57%) and 85% of Republicans surveyed by Pew in 2024 say they believe a large number of migrants seeking to enter the country leads to more crime.
In response, different commentators have pointed to research going back decades demonstrating that immigrants are generally less likely to commit crime — perhaps incentivized more than other groups to not get in trouble with the law.
For instance, a Stanford University study of U.S. census data found that for the last 145 years, immigrant communities in the country have either had similar incarceration rates (1880-1950) or lower incarceration rates (1960-present) compared with U.S. born individuals.
Less criminal, not more
This appears to be true of undocumented migrants as well. Drawing on “uniquely comprehensive arrest data” from the Texas Department of Public Safety between 2012 and 2018, University of Wisconsin-Madison researchers found that “relative to undocumented immigrants, US-born citizens are over 2 times more likely to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5 times more likely to be arrested for drug crimes, and over 4 times more likely to be arrested for property crimes.”
A Cato Institute analysis from this spring likewise found that native-born Americans had an incarceration rate of 1,221 per 100,000 people — compared with 613 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants and 319 per 100,000 for legal immigrants.
A 2024 NBC News analysis focusing on major metropolitan areas found that overall crime in Philadelphia, Chicago, Denver, New York and Los Angeles dropped year over year, even while these cities were recipients of higher numbers of new migrants.
This is also true in other countries, including Canada, where “changes in immigration are either not significantly associated or negatively associated with changes in crime rates.”
Other research reviewed by Deseret News confirms the same pattern.
Such a focus on instances of migrant crime does obscure another pattern. According to available data, undocumented migrants are also more likely to be victims of violent crime — starting with their experiences before arriving in the U.S.
Fleeing violence in one’s country of origin
A review of migrant studies around the world found “almost all participants across all studies” had experienced some kind of war-related trauma, with 27% of the more than 12,000 migrants surveyed reporting some kind of torture.
Among the approximate 244 million migrants around the world, nearly half are girls or women, many of whom are “forced to leave their country of origin to flee physical, psychological or sexual violence.”
In one case study, Alicia, a 60-year-old woman, came to the U.S. fleeing years-long physical and sexual abuse by her husband in Mexico, before being threatened with deportation to return home.
Over 123 million of this total global migrant population, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, have also been forcibly displaced due to violence, conflict, persecution and human rights violations as of June 2024.
Specific to the U.S., a 2024 University of Michigan study found that nearly half of migrants crossing into the U.S from Latin America and the Caribbean reported that they had experienced “firearm-related threats or violence in their home country.”
Generally less violence risk for established immigrants
Once immigrants are established with authorized and permanent residence in the U.S., however, studies frequently show a decreased risk for their being victims of crimes. “Most empirical studies” examining the impact of immigrant status on rates of victimization have shown “higher rates among nonimmigrants than among immigrants” reported Penn State analysts over a decade ago, with rates of intimate partner abuse as much as half as much in immigrant women compared with U.S.-born women.
One 2013 Penn State study found U.S.-born Latino women had greater odds of “all forms of victimization,” compared with immigrants who had “lower odds of all forms of victimization.” And University of Texas, El Paso scholars summarize in 2023, “immigrant statuses generally protect against (criminal) victimization” of various kinds.
Some apparent exceptions to this general pattern of protection against victimization among immigrants include: (a) immigrants more recently in the country - particularly during the first two years after arrival - and especially those with a language barrier, (b) Asian immigrants within the United States, (c) women with older age upon arrival in the U.S. and (d) younger immigrants, with higher rates of sexual violence among adolescent immigrants documented in the U.S., Norway, Finland, Sweden, Taiwan, China and Vietnam.
More violence risk for undocumented migrants
It’s those immigrants who are undocumented and without permanent status and authorization to remain in the U.S. who have an especially high risk of being exploited, according to New York University scholars in 2023. As Penn State scholars summarized in 2013, “refugees, asylum-seekers and undocumented migrants are vulnerable to sexual and gender-based violence.”
“Perpetrators will target immigrants because of their legal status and lower likelihood to report,” say Sam Houston State University scholars.
While acknowledging the risk for family violence plagues communities of “all races, socio-economic status and geographical locations,” U.S. researchers earlier highlighted a heightened risk among immigrant groups where “victims’ alternatives to living with their abuser are more limited and they face more obstacles to obtaining the assistance they need to escape the violence.”
Uncertainty over status and intentional delays in submitting immigration papers can be used by perpetrators as means of coercion and control, according to the National Immigrant Women’s Advocacy Project. That can include threats to report a victim to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, have them deported, interfere with the immigration or naturalization process, and take a woman’s children away.
In another case study, an undocumented woman, Iris, was sexually and physically abused by a man after arriving - and told that “no one could help her and that the police would deport her.” Even though a neighbor alerted the police to this abuse, the perpetrator was eventually released and was able to get Iris deported, which left her two children behind in the U.S.
More fear, less help
It’s admittedly difficult to discern how much crime is being perpetrated against migrant populations. That’s because a substantial portion of undocumented migrants hold a justified fear that seeking help from social services could lead to their deportation - which represents an obvious and significant deterrent to reporting crimes, according to research.
Even studies that found no difference in victimization rate by immigrant legal status, found undocumented Latinas significantly “less likely to seek formal help than those with permanent status.” A 2024 study of Kenyan immigrants likewise found that “virtually all participants expressed hesitancy to report abuses for fear of partner retribution or legal repercussions.”
This hesitance to report increases, scholars say, from “lack of knowledge concerning reporting, lack of trust in law enforcement” and, again, by “language barriers.”
At a time when a majority of Americans now believe migrants are worsening American crime rates, it’s important to check on the broader research. While consistently less likely to commit crime, undocumented migrant and refugee populations in the U.S. are at greater risk of being victims of violence and other kinds of crime, which is the reason many have fled to the United States in the first place.