- George W. Bush left Ken Paxton out of Senate Republican fundraising push.
- Paxton trails his Democratic opponent in fundraising as polls show them tied.
- Utah GOP donor calls this a "loser mentality" that could result in Texas flipping blue.
Former President George W. Bush appeared at a Texas fundraiser on Monday in support of six Republican Senate candidates fighting for control of Congress in battleground states across the country.
Absent from the fundraising list was the GOP nominee in Texas, Ken Paxton.
Invitations obtained by The New York Times show that the fundraiser was hosted by incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in a May runoff primary election by nearly 30 percentage points.
The Paxton snub shows how some big-money conservatives remain reticent to support the scandal-ridden attorney general despite the waning influence of the Bush political dynasty in the Lone Star State.
A Paxton donor told the Deseret News this is a “loser mindset” that could jeopardize the midterms, while a Republican strategist said Bush could be indirectly helping Paxton secure national support.
Either way, it is a divide among party elite as the traditionally red state risks flipping blue.
The money race
President Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024. However, the 10 most recent public opinion polls have Paxton tied or trailing his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, by 1-6 percentage points.
These results coincide with a massive dollar advantage for Talarico who has outraised Paxton by more than 3-to-1, bringing in a haul $27 million during the first quarter and $30 million during the second.
Some, like Sen. Mike Lee, have urged the party to rally around Paxton regardless of his past, which includes indictment, impeachment and allegations of adultery, because he was chosen by 64% of GOP voters.
Rejecting Paxton outright ignores the impact of his race in securing a Senate majority in Washington, D.C., according to Doug Quezada, a Paxton donor in Utah who hosted a fundraiser for Paxton in August.
“Bush and Cornyn raising money for other candidates while leaving Ken out strikes me as the ‘I’d rather be right than win’ mentality that’s infected too much of the party,” Quezada told the Deseret News.
“Six years of a Democratic senator from Texas would be one heck of a costly ‘I told you so.’”
After backing Cornyn in the messy, expensive, AI-fueled primary campaign, Senate Republican leadership have jumped behind Paxton in what could become one of the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history.
Earlier this month, a Senate leadership PAC purchased more than $30 million in advertising space to help Paxton. Meanwhile, Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC spent $15 million of its $415 million on ads to boost Paxton and bash Talarico.
This influx of cash, which includes $1.6 million from Elon Musk’s America PAC, has “fundamentally changed the race,” said Matt Whitlock a former senior adviser to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Dueling allegations
While he distanced himself from Paxton, Bush is helping the Texas candidate by fundraising for GOP hopefuls in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio, and the NRSC, according to Whitlock.
“Every dollar President Bush helps these other Republicans raise is one less dollar these other groups need to spend in their races,” potentially opening up funds for Paxton, he told the Deseret News.
Talarico’s rapid rise in the polls may have outpaced voters’ ability to familiarize themselves with his track record, Whitlock points out, which the Paxton campaign can use to define him as a “wacky far-left activist.”
Ads from the Paxton campaign, and aligned PACs, have focused heavily on comments from Talarico, some from several years ago, where he endorsed transgender ideology for children and called God “nonbinary.”
However, Talarico has made a concerted effort to change his messaging for a general electorate.
Talarico retracted several of his viral statements this month, stating he believes that there are only two sexes and that he opposes transgender surgeries for minors and transgender athletes playing in girls sports.
In his shift to the center, Talarico has been relentless in hammering the GOP for rising costs, like for fuel.
Democrats have done everything they can to remind voters of Paxton’s impeachment in the Texas House for abuse of his office to help a campaign contributor and an FBI investigation into bribery allegations.
Besides resurfacing Talarico comments, Paxton’s campaign has tried to help the attorney general by highlighting his legal victories to restart the border wall, overturn lax immigration rules, restrict porn access for minors and oppose vaccine mandates.
Voter dissatisfaction has left Republicans vulnerable across the map. Of the seven “toss up” Senate seats, four are in states where Trump won by double digits. Republicans currently fill 53 seats in the Senate.