Utah native Tony Finau has become known on the PGA Tour for regularly being able to come close to winning tournaments but not getting the job done.
Why is that the case? Is he faltering down the stretch or are other golfers just playing really well on Sundays?
Earlier this week, Golf Digest’s Christopher Powers broke down some numbers provided by Data Golf that examined how Finau has performed in final rounds compared to the field. In short, the data shows that as a general trend, Finau’s competition just plays really well when it matters most rather than a major faltering on Finau’s part.
That was certainly the case last Sunday in the final round of the The American Express, as Finau started the day in a tie for the lead with two others at -15. Finau shot a good -4 68, but finished in fourth as Si Woo Kim shot a 64 to win the event at -23, Patrick Cantlay fired a 61 to finish -22 and Cameron Davis shot a 64 to finish at -20.
Powers noted that it marked Finau’s 35th top 10 finish in 125 PGA Tour events since Finau won the Puerto Open in 2016.
Data Golf’s numbers indicate that the field playing incredibly well on Sundays is a trend Finau has routinely seen, even as he’s played well. According to Powers, since 2004, Data Golf has tracked the “strokes-gained over expectation” statistic, which essentially shows how players perform under pressure, or “when they are in or around the lead of a tournament.”
Last week, according to the data, Finau actually beat his strokes gained expectation by one shot, and he’s beat the expectation regularly on Sundays in which he finds himself in the top 10 (he’s actually in the top 10 on Tour in strokes gained, according to the numbers).
The data does show that while Finau regularly plays well on Sundays, he hardly ever plays great, which often has been his undoing.
“In the last 10 events that Finau has started the final round T-3 or better in, he gained strokes over expectation in five of them,” Powers wrote. “Unfortunately, that has not yet translated into career win No. 2. Until that eventually happens, no amount of fancy numbers will be enough for Finau to shake the can’t-get-it-done-on-Sundays label.”