Before Thursday night, Utah’s Saturday matchup against the Oregon Ducks in Eugene was setting up to be one of the biggest regular season games for the Runnin’ Utes in years.
The general consensus was that Utah — even with its dismal road record — would defeat a struggling Oregon State team on Thursday that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings and had won just six conference games.
That would set up a Quad 1 road matchup against the Ducks, and a win in Eugene could have possibly punched Utah’s ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Instead, Oregon State scored a season-high 92-points in a seven-point victory over the Utes that dealt Utah a Quad 3 loss and put the nail in the coffin of its Big Dance hopes, barring a run to at least the Pac-12 championship game.
Utah doesn’t have much time to think about the missed opportunity against the Beavers, turning around to play Oregon less than 48 hours later in a Quad 1 opportunity.
“Obviously this one really stings, but we have a Quad 1 opportunity in front of us in two days and now we got to do it the hard way. We got to do it the hard way and got to find a way to go in there and compete against a good Oregon team that’s really had the Utes’ numbers over the years,” Utah coach Craig Smith said.
Matthew Knight Arena has historically been a house of horror for the Utes, who have only won there once in nine tries, the lone victory coming in the 2017-18 season under then-head coach Larry Krystkowiak.
This season, Utah beat the Ducks for just the third time since joining the Pac-12 Conference, winning 80-77 to end an 11-game skid against Oregon.
Deivon Smith scored nine consecutive points late in the game to boost the Utes over the Ducks, and finished with a career-high 24.
“We were able to take care of business at home against them. They’re explosive, they’re athletic, they’re really good at transition, and so we got to learn from this one. We got to learn from this one and grow from it. It’s a quick turnaround and we got to put our big boy pants on and find a way to compete in 48 hours,” Craig Smith said.
Utah had its worst defensive performance of the season on Thursday, and it’ll have its hands full against Oregon’s Jermaine Couisnard (15.6 points per game), and N’Faly Dante (15.2 ppg).
“Oregon is immensely talented and they have a lot of different guys that can get it going. Couisnard is really, really good, N’Faly Dante is really, really good and he’s playing, in my limited time here, he’s playing the best I’ve ever seen him play,” Smith said.
“He’s become a real force in the post. He’s always been a force, but he’s become a real scoring force in the block, and then they play a lot of freshmen that just seem to be playing a lot better than they were when we played them whenever it was, six weeks ago.”
The Ducks (19-11, 11-8 Pac-12) lost 79-75 to Colorado on Thursday, ending any slim NCAA Tournament hopes after losing another Quad 1 game (the Ducks have just two Quad 1 victories on the season).
Thus, Saturday’s game (5 p.m. MST, Pac-12 Network) has lost a lot of its luster. Instead of a potential NCAA Tournament ticket-puncher, the only intrigue the Utah-Oregon matchup carries is Pac-12 Tournament seeding implications and the chance for the Utes to get one last win at historically-difficult Matthew Knight Arena.
Here’s what the Pac-12 standings look like entering Saturday’s game:
The top four seeds of the Pac-12 tournament are set — Arizona, Washington State, Colorado and Oregon. Utah can grab the No. 5 seed in Las Vegas with a win over Oregon, as Utah and UCLA both have a 9-10 conference record entering the final game of the regular season, and the Utes own the tiebreaker over the Bruins with a 2-0 record this season.
If the Utes get the No. 5 seed, they would play the No. 12 seed Oregon State and play No. 4 Oregon if they advanced.
If the Utes lose to Oregon, giving them 11 conference losses, things have the potential to get messy. Cal and Washington are locked into 11 Pac-12 losses, having already played their final regular-season games, while UCLA and Arizona State play Saturday at 9 p.m. MST.
If UCLA beats Arizona State, the Bruins would get the No. 5 seed and Utah would be in a three-team tiebreaker with Washington and Cal (all with a 9-11 Pac-12 record) for the No. 6 seed. With the Utes’ 2-1 record over the Huskies and Bears, Utah would win the tiebreaker.
The Utes would face the No. 11 seed in this scenario, and if they won their first-round matchup, would face No. 3 seed Colorado.
If Arizona State beats UCLA, there would be a five-team tiebreaker with Utah, Washington, Cal, Arizona State and UCLA — all with a 9-11 conference record.
In this scenario, Washington would get the No. 5 seed, as it has the best record (5-3) against the other teams that would be tied. With the Huskies claiming the No. 5 seed, it would then go to a four-team tie among ASU, Utah, Cal and UCLA. Arizona State would get the No. 6 seed due to having a 4-2 record against the tied teams. The tiebreaker would then go to a three-team tie between Utah, Cal and UCLA, which Utah would win by virtue of a 3-0 record over the Bruins and Bears, making them the No. 7 seed in the tournament.
As the No. 7 seed, the Utes would face the No. 10 seed in the first-round before facing No. 2 Washington State in the quarterfinals with a win.