The Big 12 Conference heads into a new era of football, where parity could reign supreme during the first year the conference has 16 teams.
With blue-blood programs Texas and Oklahoma gone to the SEC and Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State joining from the Pac-12, there’s a new look to one of the Power Four conferences.
Will teams like Utah and Arizona be able to come in and compete for the Big 12 title during their first year in the league? Will legacy programs like Oklahoma State, Kansas State or Kansas make their claim as the league’s top team this season?
It should provide for plenty of drama during the 2024 season.
Plus, with the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff going into effect this season, the Big 12 winner is all but assured a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the playoff — putting even higher stakes on determining the conference champion.
With the 2024 season just over two weeks away, here’s our look at how the new-look Big 12 stacks up on the football field, and who will be contenders or pretenders this season:
1. Utah Utes
- 2023 record: 8-5 overall, 5-4 Pac-12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 29 vs. Southern Utah
Why they’re ranked No. 1: After an unusually high number of injuries derailed the Utes’ hopes last season, everything changes with quarterback Cam Rising now healthy. There’s a lot of faith circulating through the program with Rising, who led Utah to back-to-back Pac-12 championships in 2021 and 2022, back on the field.
There’s a bevy of optimism that Utah can win the league in its first year in the Big 12. Transfers like wide receiver Dorian Singer and returnees like linebacker Karene Reid and other seasoned defenders help fuel that thinking, as does a schedule that is primed to challenge Utah early in Big 12 play but gives the Utes the avenue to build a long winning streak as the calendar turns to November.
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys
- 2023 record: 10-4 overall, 7-2 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. South Dakota State
Why they’re ranked No. 2: The Cowboys make a compelling case to be among the top contenders in the league this year. Oklahoma State reached the Big 12 championship game a year ago, showing it has the chops under Mike Gundy to stay near the top of the conference, and returns the Big 12′s top player, running back Ollie Gordon II, who won the Doak Walker Award after a monstrous 2023 season. The Cowboys also get Utah in Stillwater to start league play, where a win would give them a huge leg up in the conference race.
3. Kansas State Wildcats
- 2023 record: 9-4 overall, 6-3 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. UT Martin
Why they’re ranked No. 3: Avery Johnson showed flashes of his potential as a true freshman, including the quarterback accounting for three touchdowns and 249 total yards in a Pop-Tarts Bowl win over NC State. If the former four-star prospect can live up to the hype, the Wildcats could overcome some of their consistency issues from last year and make a run at the Big 12 title, especially since they avoid Utah during the regular season.
4. Arizona Wildcats
- 2023 record: 10-3 overall, 7-2 Pac-12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. New Mexico
Why they’re ranked No. 4: Arizona surprised the Pac-12 last season by going 7-2 in league play and nearly playing its way into the conference championship game. The question is, with coach Jedd Fisch leaving for Washington, how will Brent Brennan fare in his first year as a Power Four head coach? Thankfully for the Wildcats — and unfortunately for everyone else — they were able to retain two star players — quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Those two are the real deal and will create headaches for the opposition.
5. Kansas Jayhawks
- 2023 record: 9-4 overall, 5-4 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 29 vs. Lindenwood
Why they’re ranked No. 5: Jalon Daniels is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks not just in the Big 12 but among all signal callers at the FBS level, and he’ll team up with star running back Devin Neal again. How much the duo will impact the Big 12 race is likely to come down to whether Daniels — who played in just three games last year due to injuries — can stay healthy and be the leader of Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks. Daniels’ talent is undeniable and if he can stay on the field, the Jayhawks, especially with a favorable league schedule, could make their own run at the conference crown.
6. Iowa State Cyclones
- 2023 record: 7-6 overall, 6-3 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. North Dakota
Why they’re ranked No. 6: While last year was a bit of a roller-coaster season for Iowa State, particularly out of conference action, the Cyclones found themselves in the Big 12 title mix at the end of the year and were one of three teams to go 6-3 in league play. The Cyclones return enough talent and experience — they bring back nine starters on offense, including sophomore QB Rocco Becht, and nine on defense — that building off of last season looks like a real possibility.
7. West Virginia Mountaineers
- 2023 record: 9-4 overall, 6-3 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. Penn State
Why they’re ranked No. 7: The Mountaineers were the surprise of the Big 12 last season, far exceeding the media poll’s projection that West Virginia would finish last in the conference. Instead, the Mountaineers won four of their final five regular-season games, were victorious in a bowl game and have momentum going into 2024. Can Neal Brown keep the good vibes going and will West Virginia impact the conference race?
8. TCU Horned Frogs
- 2023 record: 5-7 overall, 3-6 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 30 at Stanford
Why they’re ranked No. 8: TCU’s time in the Big 12 has been marked by incredible highs — like reaching the national championship game in 2022 — and sub-.500 lows — like winning just five games last season, including three in conference play. That makes it difficult to know what you’re going to get out of third-year coach Sonny Dykes and his Horned Frogs, though there’s reason for optimism — sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover played strong at the end of last season, and TCU brought in new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos to shore up that side of the ball.
9. UCF Knights
- 2023 record: 6-7 overall, 3-6 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 29 vs. New Hampshire
Why they’re ranked No. 9: The Knights were the only Big 12 newcomer to make the postseason last year, and even though they lost their bowl game, they won three of their final four regular-season games — including a 42-point victory over Oklahoma State. That, combined with the fact three of their losses came by a total of four points, is a sign UCF may not be that far away from competing in the league. A handful of difficult road games this year — at TCU, Florida, Iowa State and West Virginia — will test just how much UCF, with Arkansas quarterback transfer KJ Jefferson, has improved.
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders
- 2023 record: 7-6 overall, 5-4 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. Abilene Christian
Why they’re ranked No. 10: What to make of the Red Raiders? In two years under coach Joey McGuire, they’ve gone a pedestrian 15-11 overall and 5-4 each year in Big 12 play. Texas Tech has one of the best running backs in college football in Tahj Brooks and showed several times last year they can compete with the upper half of the league, but it’s a matter of getting over the hump and contending at this point. This is a key season for McGuire and company to show upward trajectory.
11. Baylor Bears
- 2023 record: 3-9 record, 2-7 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. Tarleton
Why they’re ranked No. 11: This may seem to be a bit high for a Baylor program that looked dreadful through much of the 2023 season, and even during parts of the year before that. But coach Dave Aranda appeared to sense the urgency needed to turn around his program that won the Big 12 championship only three years ago, as he made multiple moves on his coaching staff this offseason. Incoming QB transfer Dequan Finn will be key to helping turn about the Bears quickly, if it’s possible.
12. Colorado Buffaloes
- 2023 record: 4-8 overall, 1-8 Pac-12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 29 vs. North Dakota State
Why they’re ranked No. 12: Deion Sanders is a polarizing figure, one that made the country tune in to the Buffaloes last year, and he’s shown that he can recruit elite talent. Unfortunately, there’s also a lot of talent that’s left during his time in Boulder. Sanders’ challenge this year is to get his team competitive to challenge for a spot in the postseason, all while joining a new conference. With Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and dual-way star Travis Hunter impacting both offense and defense, there is a case to be made that Colorado could improve.
13. BYU Cougars
- 2023 record: 5-7 overall, 2-7 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. Southern Illinois
Why they’re ranked No. 13: The Cougars appeared like they were going to make the postseason in their first year in the Big 12 after starting 5-2 and winning at Arkansas, but things fell apart in the second half of the year as BYU finished with a five-game losing streak. That finish — and the fact the Cougars were not competitive in several games until challenging Oklahoma and Oklahoma State late in the year — dampened the enthusiasm around the program.
Now, BYU finds itself needing to work on shoring up depth while answering questions at quarterback going into the 2024 season. It’s not exactly an inspiring combination, and a brutal midseason stretch where the Cougars will be tested by many of the Big 12′s top projected teams hangs like a cloud over Provo. BYU could surprise, yes, but it feels safe to keep expectations modest until further notice.
14. Cincinnati Bearcats
- 2023 record: 3-9 overall, 1-8 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. Towson
Why they’re ranked No. 14: It’s an understatement that the 2023 season was a taxing one for the Bearcats, who were accustomed to winning seasons, top-25 finishes and cracking through to the College Football Playoff under Luke Fickell. Scott Satterfield, in his first season as Cincinnati’s coach, struggled to field a competitive team, and it will be interesting to see what adjustments can be made in 2024. Bringing in a transfer quarterback like Brendan Sorsby helps, though.
15. Arizona State Sun Devils
- 2023 record: 3-9 overall, 2-7 Pac-12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. Wyoming
Why they’re ranked No. 15: Kenny Dillingham inherited a mess when Herm Edwards unceremoniously was ousted as the Sun Devils’ coach, as that was reflected in how a talent deficient Arizona State team struggled during the 2023 campaign. A difficult Big 12 schedule draw won’t make it any easier to gain ground this season, though Dillingham seems to be winning people over in Tempe with his work ethic and vision for the program.
16. Houston Cougars
- 2023 record: 4-8 overall, 2-7 Big 12
- 2024 opener: Aug. 31 vs. UNLV
Why they’re ranked No. 16: Like Cincinnati, there were a lot of games last season where Houston didn’t look ready to compete week in and week out in the Big 12. That led to a coaching change, with Dana Holgerson out and Willie Fritz coming in. Fritz turned around the Tulane program the past two seasons and could do the same for Houston, but don’t expect that to happen overnight, even in talent-rich Texas country.