Are the Mountain West Conference’s days numbered?
In the wake of the news that Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State are headed to the Pac-12 in 2026, the conversation surrounding the latest round of conference realignment has largely centered on who else the Pac-12 will add.
In order to be a viable FBS conference, the Pac-12 must have at least eight member schools by 2026, if not more.
There isn’t much fear that the Pac-12 won’t be able to hit that number, though, with conference commissioner Teresa Gould telling Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger that there has been significant interest from other schools since the news of Pac-12 expansion broke.
With the revival of the Pac-12 looking more and more likely, questions now turn to the MWC.
Will the conference — currently considered one of the best in the Group of Five — survive with just eight members? Will other member schools leave?
Is the grouping of Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming good enough for the MW to be considered a viable G5 conference?
There isn’t a lot of optimism on that front.
Writes Jon Wilner of The Mercury News: “The eight remaining schools in the Mountain West will beg and plead for invitations to the Pac-12. But only two are likely to get the call. ... The six Mountain West schools that don’t get called up could be left for the dustbin of major college football. We are simply being honest, folks.”
There is an argument to be made that no matter what the Pac-12 eventually becomes, it won’t matter as college football is trending to two super leagues (the Big Ten and the SEC) and could top out at 40 teams at the highest level of the sport. So it doesn’t really matter if the MW can remain viable because few conferences will be.
Still, right now, there are 10 FBS conferences and the MWC will surely try to remain one of them for as long as possible.
Which begs the question: Who could the league add to solidify itself?
Dellenger noted that conference commissioner Gloria Nevarez is “not sitting idly by,” and that the league has already vetted new members, going back to last year when SDSU tried to make a move to the former iteration of the Pac-12.
As such, Dellenger notes that the MW could turn to Conference USA to add schools, specifically New Mexico State and UTEP, both of which fit the conference geographically.
There is also a chance that the MW raids the FCS ranks.
“Tarleton State, an up-and-coming FCS program with tons of money and potential residing just outside of Dallas-Fort Worth, is an option as well,” Dellenger writes. “And what about FCS teams like North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana State and Montana?”
Dellenger isn’t the only one to think the MW could go the FCS route.
The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman put together a list of the top potential targets for MW expansion and his top four options are all FCS powers — North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana and Montana State.
Dochterman sees UTEP and New Mexico State as viable options as well, but also included Idaho to the list of potential MW additions, along with Sacramento State, North Dakota, South Dakota and Northern Arizona.
Of course, any FCS program that moves up to the FBS level has to pay a hefty $5 million entry fee.
Throw in the uncertainty of the MW going forward — current teams could leave at any time. Air Force has previously been targeted by the American Athletic Conference (AAC), which is home to both Army and Navy — and would stable, winning FCS programs want to make the jump?
“Why enter into Group of Five purgatory when you can dominate at the FCS level,” a source told Wilner and The Mercury News.
The Mountain West could try and get creative.
The league — which will still have some notable men’s basketball programs, like UNLV, New Mexico and Utah State — could attempt to lure Gonzaga in as a member, leaning into being a basketball conference as the future of college football looks more and more bleak for smaller schools.
Some of the $111 million the MW will receive in exit fees/Pac-12 poaching fees could be used to entice the Bulldogs to join.
The league could also try to expand east, specifically to Texas. Texas is home to seven FBS programs now, and if the MW could convince Texas State to leave the Sun Belt and Sam Houston to leave Conference USA, it could be on its way to establishing a wing in one of the most talent-rich and football-obsessed states in the country, which would only help in terms of talent in the conference and eyeballs on the teams themselves.
The MW could also attempt to come to some sort of merger agreement with either Conference USA or the Sun Belt, forming a massive Group of Five league that could, in theory, pave the way to a Group of Five playoff, something Nevarez and the MW have been open to previously.
Whatever the MW does, it has to act quickly. Otherwise, it seems more and more likely that additional conference members will leave, either as other additions to the Pac-12 or even to join other Group of Five leagues like the AAC or Conference USA.
Wilner speculated that some of the remaining MW schools could even move down to the FCS level, or embrace independence in the FBS ranks.
Whatever happens, the MW is the loser in the latest round of conference realignment, writes Wilner.
“Commissioner Gloria Nevarez was outmaneuvered, badly. She made the same mistake so many commissioners have made over the years, including the Pac-12′s Larry Scott (her former boss) and George Kliavkoff. Instead of catering to the schools coveted by the Pac-12 — to the flight risks — Nevarez crafted a strategy to suit the bottom-tier schools in her conference.
“While she took a hardline stance with the Pac-12 on extending the football scheduling partnership, thinking the leverage was with the Mountain West, San Diego State and Boise State plotted their escape route with Colorado State and Fresno State in tow.”