Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU’s first game in October is an important one.
The Cougars, who are off to a 5-0 start and just one win away from bowl eligibility, will host Arizona on Saturday in a matchup that brought Fox’s “Big Noon Kickoff” to Provo.
Can BYU stay unbeaten and further strengthen its case as a Big 12 contender, or will Arizona march into LaVell Edwards Stadium and walk out with a road win?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game — and the outcome went down to the wire.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
BYU has a full stable of running backs healthy for this game, including LJ Martin and Sione I. Moa, and for the first time in several weeks, Martin could stay atop the BYU depth chart at RB for the simulation.
The Cougars, though, will be absent wide receiver Kody Epps and, more importantly, center Connor Pay, who suffered a broken foot in the win over Baylor two weeks ago. For the simulation, I subbed in Sonny Makafisi to replace Pay.
Arizona, meanwhile, is down two standout defensive backs — Treydan Stukes is out for the year with a reported ACL injury, while Gunner Maldonado is missing time with a lower back injury. Both players were taken off the Wildcats’ depth chart in the secondary.
The uniforms both teams will be wearing Saturday were also implemented into the simulation. BYU is going with a royal blue jersey and with white helmet and pants adorned with royal trim, while Arizona is going all-white — from helmet to jersey to pants — in its appearance.
How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?
The actual score: BYU 34, Baylor 28
College Football 25 simulation final score: BYU 38, Baylor 17
My analysis: Yes, the simulation accurately predicted a BYU win. It was much tighter than the simulation score ended up, though.
The Cougars led 21-0 in the first quarter and 31-14 at halftime in the actual game, but the Bears rallied to make it a one-score contest and had a chance to take the lead late. BYU’s defense came up big, though, while in the simulation, the Cougars pulled away in the second half.
How did the simulation between BYU and Arizona play out?
Final score: BYU 20, Arizona 15
Key sequence: After trailing 20-9, the Wildcats nearly rallied to take the lead.
Arizona started what ended up being its final possession at its own 16, and Tetairoa McMillan saved the drive by converting a third and 12 with a 34-yard reception.
That helped spark the Wildcats, who moved down the field and reached the BYU 1 five plays later on a pass to Jeremiah Patterson.
That left Arizona in prime position to take its first lead, as it trailed 20-15 with just over two minutes remaining.
On first and goal, the Cougars dropped Quali Conley for a 2-yard loss to the 3. Then on second down, Arizona’s Noah Fifita tried to hit Patterson in the end zone, but the ball bounced off his hands and BYU’s Jakob Robinson intercepted the tipped ball to end the threat.
The Cougars were able to run out the clock from there to escape the late rally.
How the simulation transpired: The Cougars never trailed, though Arizona always found ways to stick around in their matchup in Provo.
BYU put up a touchdown on its opening possession when Martin scored from 1 yard out midway through the first quarter. The Cougars converted three third downs on the drive, all passes and on the Arizona side of the field, including a 6-yarder to Darius Lassiter inside the 10 that set up the Martin TD run.
After an empty possession for each team, Arizona got on the board with a 55-yard field goal from Tyler Loop as the first quarter ended.
The second quarter was all about field goals. Jake Retzlaff completed passes of 39 and 30 yards to Keanu Hill and Parker Kingston, respectively, to get BYU inside the red zone on its first drive of the quarter, only for the possession to end with a 34-yard Will Ferrin field goal and a 10-3 lead.
The Cougars pushed that lead out to 10 on their next possession when Retzlaff was sacked on third and goal from the 1, and it led to a 27-yard Ferrin field goal with just under two minutes until halftime.
Arizona responded with a field goal drive of its own, as Loop hit from 50 yards to make it 13-6 at the break.
Both teams struggled a bit offensively to start the second half before Arizona cut its deficit to 13-9 with another field goal drive, as Loop hit from 48 yards this time with three minutes left in the third quarter.
That’s when Chase Roberts delivered the Cougars’ top offensive play of the day.
After Martin converted a third and 2 with a 4-yard run early in the drive and Hill caught a 12-yard pass, Retzlaff found Roberts open down the middle for a 61-yard catch and run touchdown to lift BYU to a 20-9 lead with one minute left in the third.
The Wildcats had an answer, though.
McMillan, the Wildcats’ star receiver, extended Arizona’s next drive with a 19-yard catch on third down, and Conley broke off a 16-yard run on the first play of the fourth quarter to move Arizona into BYU territory.
That set up another long touchdown, as Fifita hit Montana Lemonious-Craig for a 46-yard touchdown pass less than a minute into the final period.
With the Wildcats trailing by five, they went for 2, but BYU stopped a run in the backfield to make it a 20-15 game.
That missed two-point conversion proved critical down the stretch.
Over the next several minutes, BYU had two drives end in punts, while Arizona had its own punt, then the Wildcats took over at their own 16 with just over four minutes remaining with the chance to take the lead.
McMillan again came up with a big third-down catch, gaining 34 yards on a third-and-12 that sparked the drive. Conley then converted a third-and-inches with a 12-yard run to BYU’s 33, and Fifita found Patterson for a 29-yard pass to BYU’s 1-yard line.
That’s when the Cougars’ defensive heroics, highlighted by Robinson’s interception, came up big in the final two minutes.
After Robinson’s interception, BYU ran out the clock for the win.
Star players: Retzlaff threw for 270 yards and a touchdown and did not turn the ball over. His favorite target was Roberts, who had four catches for 108 yards, while Hill added five receptions for 62 yards.
Martin ran for 64 yards in his first game back since Week 2.
Defensively, Harrison Taggart had 13 tackles, while Tyler Batty added four tackles, two tackles for loss and one of BYU’s two sacks on the day.
Fifita completed 70% of his passes and threw for 273 yards, one touchdown and an interception for Arizona.
Lemonious-Craig had seven catches for 125 yards and a touchdown, while McMillan added seven receptions for 77 yards.
Conley ran for 114 yards, with a 4.2 per-carry average.
Key stats: The Wildcats outgained the Cougars, 387 total yards to 335, and Arizona went 8 of 15 on third down, compared to 5 of 12 for BYU.
The Cougars, though, finished off their drives better — Arizona never reached the red zone until the end of the game, and BYU forced a turnover on the Wildcats’ only trip inside the 20.
The Cougars, meanwhile, scored on all three of their red zone trips, though only one was a touchdown while two other drives ended with short field goals.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: The BYU-Arizona game has the possibility to be a thriller, and the simulation definitely delivered on a vision for how that could play out.
Saturday’s game may end up a lot like the simulation.