Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah State is back in action after a bye week.
Can a bit of time off — and a victory before that bye — help invigorate the Aggies as they head on the road to face No. 21 Washington State?
Time will tell when the two teams face off Saturday night.
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and the video game favored Utah State giving the Cougars a contest.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
The Aggies are without star wide receiver Jalen Royals for the rest of the season, and they still have several players on the defensive line banged up that were kept out of the simulation.
I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game the best I could.
Utah State is going with blue helmets with a blue facemask (which wasn’t available in the video game), along with white jerseys and pants.
Washington State, meanwhile, is wearing its red helmet, along with anthracite jerseys and pants.
How accurate was the simulation of Utah State’s last game?
The actual score: Utah State 27, Wyoming 25
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah State 38, Wyoming 21
My analysis: The simulation accurately predicted that Utah State would beat Wyoming and snap its six-game losing streak, though it was closer than the video game predicted.
In real life, the Aggies used a 40-yard field goal from Tanner Cragun as time expired to beat the Cowboys.
In the simulation, Utah State led by 24 points at halftime in cruising to a win.
How did the simulation between Utah State and Washington State play out?
Final score: Utah State 43, Washington State 39
Key sequence: Late in the first quarter, the Aggies trailed 10-3 and it felt like Washington State was building momentum and threatening to blow the game open.
That’s when Avante Dickerson stepped in front of a John Mateer pass and returned it 36 yards for a pick-six, one play after the Cougars pulled off a 16-yard pass to get a drive going.
That made it 10-10 going into the second quarter, and the Aggies were in the contest the rest of the way.
How the simulation transpired: This game went back and forth throughout the afternoon, while the Aggies were able to hang with their ranked opponent during a strong second quarter for Washington State.
Utah State took its opening drive 63 yards before scoring on a 40-yard field goal midway through the first quarter.
Washington State had an answer, as Kris Hutson caught a 19-yard touchdown pass three minutes later to make it 7-3 Cougars.
On the next play of the ensuing drive, Utah State’s Spencer Petras lost a fumble at the Aggies 6. Utah State held the Cougars to a field goal, though, and trailed 10-3.
Dickerson’s pick-six with 12 seconds left in the first quarter made it 10-10 going into the second quarter.
Hutson quickly responded again for Washington State, catching a short pass before racing 76 yards for a touchdown that gave the Cougars a 17-10 lead in what ended up being a second quarter that featured 38 total points.
Utah State counted with a Kyrese White 30-yard touchdown pass when Petras was given several seconds by his offensive line to find White, who then fought his way through three defenders at the goal line to score.
The Aggies then went ahead when Mateer threw his third interception of the first half, as Cian Slone picked him off at the Washington State 30. Four plays later, Rahsul Faison scored on a 3-yard run to make it 24-17 Aggies.
The Cougars again had a quick answer, as Josh Meredith caught a 55-yard touchdown pass to knot the score with five minutes until halftime.
After a Utah State three and out, Hutson capped another drive with a 13-yard touchdown catch to give the Cougars a 31-24 lead.
The Aggies, though, moved the ball downfield quickly and added a 30-yard field goal on the final play of the first half.
Utah State took the lead back in the third quarter.
On the first drive of the second half, the Aggies were aided by an Otto Tia 46-yard catch and reached the Washington State 1 before Petras was sacked on third and goal, leading to a 25-yard field goal. That made it 31-30, Washington State.
Washington State then went three and out, and White had a 45-yard catch and run to get the Aggies back into Cougars territory. Faison capped another long USU drive with a 1-yard touchdown run, though Utah State failed to convert a two-point conversion and led 36-31 with 5:31 left in the third quarter.
Utah State took its lead into the fourth quarter, as the Cougars’ offense bogged down until the early minutes of the final period.
The Cougars converted a second and 18 to reach the Aggies 6, then Andre Dollar caught a 7-yard pass on third and goal with 8:53 to play. Washington State added a two-point conversion, and it was 39-36 for the Cougars.
Both teams had quick, empty possessions after that, which set the stage for the game-winning drive for Utah State.
Faison ripped off a 15-yard run to the Washington State 1, then was spelled by Herschel Turner, who scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 4-yard run on second and goal. That capped a 12-play, 67-yard drive and put Utah State back ahead with just 3:54 to play.
On Washington State’s ensuing possession, the Cougars were forced to punt after Gabriel Iniguez Jr. sacked Mateer on third down.
The Aggies then were able to run out the clock, converting a third down with an 18-yard pass to White, followed by Faison breaking off an 8-yard run moments later to move the ball inside the 10.
That play forced Washington State to call its final timeout, and the Aggies had three kneel downs to finish off the upset.
Star players: Petras was simply brilliant, throwing for 502 yards and a touchdown.
Three of his receivers had 100 yards receiving — White had 10 receptions for 152 yards and a touchdown, Jack Hestera had nine catches for 120 yards and Tia added nine grabs for 109 yards.
Faison ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 3.4 yards per carry.
Blaine Spires also had two sacks, three tackles for loss and eight tackles for the Aggies.
Mateer threw for 454 yards and five touchdowns, but his three interceptions cost the Cougars.
His top target was Hutson, who had nine catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns.
Key stats: The Aggies won the turnover battle, three to one.
Utah State also held a 583 to 482 advantage in total yards and were 10 of 23 on third downs, while Washington State was just 5 of 18.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: This would be an exciting way for Utah State to open the final month of play — though realistically, it feels like a stretch that the Aggies could pull the upset, especially on the road.
While it’s believable that Utah State could have a solid offensive day in Pullman, Washington, it would be a surprise if the Aggies’ defense holds down the Cougars offense like it did in the second half of the simulation.
