After defeating Utah in dramatic fashion this past weekend, it almost seems as if BYU is this year’s “team of destiny” in college football. Through nine games, no one has been able to conquer the Cougars.
Of course, there are still three weeks of football left to be played to determine BYU’s fate in 2024. However, the advanced metrics currently point to a happy ending for the Cougars.
ESPN Analytics uses a number of formulas — including Football Power Index (FPI), strength of record and more — to project specific outcomes for each individual college football game. I looked into the algorithm’s projections for each remaining Big 12 contest this season to determine how the end-of-year standings might shake out — and who will likely play for the conference championship on Dec. 7.
Listed below are the four current league leaders in the Big 12 and their respective remaining schedules. Each game includes the present percentage chance ESPN Analytics gives the team to win that day, with the cumulative overall and conference records being tallied together based on what the algorithm decided.
I have performed this same exercise twice now, with the analytics from both three weeks ago and last week each predicting a BYU-Iowa State Big 12 championship game. Last week’s analytics even had BYU finishing the regular season at 12-0.
Injuries, coaching changes, newer game results and a number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now we’ll stick to what they say today.
While you should never fully put your faith into such data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves to be analytics believers may want to look into Texas travel for early December.
BYU
Current record: 9-0 (6-0 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- Vs. Kansas — 61.1% chance to win
- At Arizona State — 50.1%
- Vs. Houston — 84.8%
Analytics-based projected final record: 12-0 (9-0 in Big 12 play).
Colorado
Current record: 7-2 (5-1 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- Vs. Utah — 74.9% chance to win
- At Kansas — 52.5%
- Vs. Oklahoma State — 80.4%
Analytics-based projected final record: 10-2 (8-1 in Big 12 play).
Iowa State
Current record: 7-2 (4-2 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- Vs. Cincinnati — 70.0% chance to win
- At Utah — 60.2%
- Vs. Kansas State — 52.2%
Analytics-based projected final record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12 play).
Kansas State
Current record: 7-2 (4-2 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- Vs. Arizona State — 74.3% chance to win
- Vs. Cincinnati — 73.5%
- At Iowa State — 47.8%
Analytics-based projected final record: 9-3 (6-3 in Big 12 play).
Analytics-based projected Big 12 championship game matchup
12-0 BYU vs. 10-2 Colorado