Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU still controls its own destiny, even after losing its first game of the season last week at home against Kansas.
That loss, though, has the No. 14 Cougars in a precarious position going into a key Big 12 matchup at No. 21 Arizona State on Saturday afternoon (1:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).
The winner of that contest will own a key head-to-head tiebreaker and gain the inside track to a spot in the Big 12 championship game, with Arizona State, as well as Iowa State, just one game back of BYU and Colorado in the league standings.
Can BYU win the matchup in Tempe, Arizona, and move closer to earning a spot in the Big 12 championship game?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and like many have predicted, it ended up as a one-score game.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented. There’s nothing new on BYU’s end this week, keeping the rosters and depth chart as-is from last week.
I implemented the uniforms both teams will be wearing into the simulation.
BYU is going with royal blue helmets with a white facemask, white jerseys and royal blue pants.
Arizona State, meanwhile, is going with gold helmets and pants with maroon jerseys with a twist — the old Sparky logo will be on the helmet, though it wasn’t available in the video game.
How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?
The actual score: Kansas 17, BYU 13
College Football 25 simulation final score: Kansas 31, BYU 24
My analysis: The simulation called for the upset, though it was more high-scoring than how the game played out — BYU struggled with red-zone issues in the actual matchup.
In reality, the Cougars struggled offensively and a fourth-quarter pooch punt that resulted in a BYU turnover ended up giving the Jayhawks the winning points.
How did the simulation between BYU and Arizona State play out?
Final score: BYU 31, Arizona State 24
Key sequence: Early in the game with Arizona State driving after BYU had scored a touchdown on its opening possession, the Cougars forced the day’s lone turnover.
Tanner Wall forced a fumble on ASU’s Jordyn Tyson after a catch, and Harrison Taggart recovered at the BYU 35.
Two plays later, Chase Roberts caught a 65-yard touchdown pass and, eight minutes into the game, the Cougars had a 14-0 lead, setting the tone for a BYU victory.
How the simulation transpired: The Cougars built a big lead before withstanding an Arizona State rally in the fourth quarter.
BYU got the ball first and used a methodical eight-play, 76-yard drive to cash in. LJ Martin, who already had two carries for 17 yards and a 17-yard catch earlier in the possession, scored on a 2-yard run to make it 7-0 BYU.
The aforementioned Arizona State turnover on its next possession helped double the Cougars’ lead to 14-0, and BYU tacked on a 45-yard Will Ferrin field goal in the final minute of the first quarter to give it three scores in three drives.
It got worse before it got better for the Sun Devils, who missed a 44-yard field goal on their first possession of the second quarter.
BYU made Arizona State pay for that empty possession, as the Cougars scored on their fourth drive of the day. Roberts capped the nine-play, 71-yard drive with a 5-yard touchdown catch on third and goal to make it 24-0.
Arizona State finally got on the board with a 40-yard field goal on its opening possession of the second half.
As had been several times earlier in the game, though, BYU had an answer. This was the most time-consuming possession of the day, as the Cougars drove 89 yards in 14 plays before Martin caught a 20-yard touchdown pass to make it 31-3.
Twice, Darius Lassiter converted a third down with a catch on the drive, and Martin also had a 14-yard run earlier in the possession.
For as good as the first three quarters went for BYU, though, the Cougars gave their fans some anxiety in the final quarter.
Arizona State used a 40-yard pass on fourth down to move the ball to the BYU 26, and later in the drive Cam Skattebo scored on a 2-yard touchdown run to make it 31-10.
The Cougars were able to run some time before punting from midfield, but on the ensuing drive, Melquan Stovall caught an 80-yard touchdown to trim the deficit to 31-17 with 2:22 to play.
BYU went three and out on its next possession, giving some life to Arizona State — and the Sun Devils responded by going 75 yards for a touchdown.
That scoring drive took too long for Arizona State, as Xavier Guillory’s 18-yard touchdown grab came with 22 seconds remaining.
After BYU recovered an onside kick, the Cougars wrapped up the win, even after giving up 21 points in the final quarter.
Star players: Jake Retzlaff had a solid outing, throwing for 284 yards and three touchdowns, and was sacked only once.
Martin ran for 134 and a touchdown, while adding a 20-yard reception for another score.
Roberts ended up with six catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns.
Leavitt threw for 379 yards and two touchdowns, with over 150 of those yards coming late in the game with Arizona State trying to rally.
Stovall ended up with five catches for 152 yards and a touchdown, while Skattebo had 51 rushing yards on a 3.1 per-carry average.
Key stats: While BYU had a slight edge in total yards — 423 to 414 — the Cougars were 5 of 10 on third down, while the Sun Devils went just 3 of 12.
BYU also forced the day’s only turnover, a critical moment in what ended up being a one-score game.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: While I’m not so sure either team is going to have more than a two-score lead at any point during Saturday’s matchup, this one could go either way.
It also has the feel of a game where both teams could score in the 20s or 30s — definitely more high-scoring than BYU’s game last week.
