BYU was going to fall in the College Football Playoff rankings, again, after losing to Arizona State.
The question was, how far? And would the College Football Playoff committee consider a road loss against a ranked opponent (ASU) less damaging than a home loss to an unranked opponent (Kansas)?
In the fourth edition of the 2024 CFP rankings, the Cougars (9-2) are ranked No. 19, down five spots from their placement at No. 14 last week, meaning the loss to Arizona State was viewed as somewhat more forgivable in the eyes of the committee than the Cougars’ loss to Kansas two weeks ago.
By way of comparison, BYU was ranked No. 19 in the latest iteration of the AP Poll and No. 20 in the Coaches Poll.
The days of the of the Cougars making program history with their placement in the rankings — in the College Football Playoff era — appear done for this season, barring a wild Week 14 this upcoming holiday weekend and an equally crazy conference championship weekend the week after.
All-time, BYU has now been ranked in the CFP rankings 15 times.
Why do the College Football Playoff rankings matter?
As a reminder, since its debut in 2014 the CFP rankings have determined which teams will make it into the College Football playoff, which was previously a four-team playoff and is now a 12-team affair.
Where the AP and Coaches polls have long held a historic place in college football, the only rankings that matter currently are the CFP rankings.
In the 12-team playoff format, a top 12 ranking doesn’t guarantee a spot in the playoff, however.
The five highest ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths in the 12-team playoff, with the four highest ranked conference champions being seeded. That is expected (though not technically guaranteed) to be the champions of the ACC, the Big 12, the Big Ten and the SEC and then the highest ranked champion of one of the five Group of Five conferences.
The remaining seven playoff participants will be determined by the rankings, regardless of conference.
Currently, the four conferences in line to get first round byes are the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and MW. With the Big 12 and AAC in a fight for the final guaranteed champion spot.
Who else is ranked that matters, right now, for BYU?
The Cougars’ remaining regular season opponent — Houston — has been one of the worst teams in the Big 12 this season, with a 4-7 overall record and a 3-5 mark in the conference. The Cougars (the Houston variety) won’t be going bowling this season and a BYU win on Saturday won’t do much to raise the Cougars’ (the Provo variety) profile with the playoff committee. A loss to Houston would be incredibly damaging though and would probably knock BYU out of the rankings altogether.
BYU still has some notable wins this season. No. 9 SMU’s only loss this season is at home against BYU and the Mustangs will play for the ACC championship. Whether or not it wins that game, SMU seems destined for the playoff in its first year in a Power conference.
Other wins of note for BYU are at home against No. 24 Kansas State and at Baylor. At 8-3 and 7-4 on the year, respectively, Kansas State and Baylor are considered quality wins at this point. BYU’s other four Big 12 conference wins are a combined 15-29, which isn’t doing the Cougars any favors.
BYU still rates fairly well in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, coming in at No. 13 overall and tops among all Big 12 teams. ASU’s rise, plus the recent resurgence of Kansas, are doing wonders for BYU’s overall strength of schedule as well.
If BYU is able to secure a berth in the Big 12 title game — there are a few ways that could happen — the Cougars would have a chance to earn an almost guaranteed berth in the playoff.
The teams that may matter most in the rankings where BYU is concerned though are the two or three loss ACC teams (like Clemson), Big Ten teams (like Illinois) and SEC teams (Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A&M). How the committee views those teams after the final week of the regular season will determine if BYU has an outside shot of making the playoff as an at-large team, if the Cougars don’t get to play for the Big 12 title.
College Football Playoff rankings (Nov. 26)
- Oregon (11-0); Big Ten
- Ohio State (10-1); Big Ten
- Texas (10-1); SEC
- Penn State (10-1); Big Ten
- Notre Dame (10-1); Independent
- Miami (FL) (10-1); ACC
- Georgia (9-2); SEC
- Tennessee (9-2); SEC
- SMU (10-1); ACC
- Indiana (10-1); Big Ten
- Boise State (10-1); MWC
- Clemson (9-2); ACC
- Alabama (8-3); SEC
- Ole Miss (8-3); SEC
- South Carolina (8-3); SEC
- Arizona State (9-2); Big 12
- Tulane (9-2); AAC
- Iowa State (9-2); Big 12
- BYU (9-2); Big 12
- Texas A&M (8-3); SEC
- Missouri (8-3); SEC
- UNLV (9-2); MWC
- Illinois (8-3); Big Ten
- Kansas State (8-3); Big 12
- Colorado (8-3); Big 12